English Premier League round 18 preview

Arsenal v West Brom – (Tue 2:00am)The Gunners have really let themselves down in recent weeks and have paid the price. Back to back losses against Everton and Man City have seen them drop to 3rd and they are now 9 points off Chelsea. The most disappointing park for Arsene Wenger will be the fact that his side were able to take the lead away from home in both of those matches. They return home for back to back matches and out of the top 6 sides it is the Gunners that have the easiest run in coming weeks with matches against West Brom, Palace, Bournemouth, Swansea and Burnley. There are 15 points on offer and The Wolf says they will need all of them if they are to challenge for the title. West Brom don’t win out of turn at home with just 2 wins and 3 draws away from The Hawthorns this season. Arsenal have conceded in their last 8 EPL matches while the Baggies have scored in 5 of their last 6 away. They have missed Mustafi at the back and the combination of Gabriel and Koscielny has not been as solid as Wenger hoped. It will not matter though as there will be a flood of goals for Arsenal in the coming weeks.
Best: HT/FT – Arsenal/Arsenal ($1.75)Value: Over 3.5 goals ($2.35)

Chelsea v Bournemouth – (Tue 2:00am)It should come as no surprise that Antonio Conte was able to solve Chelsea’s early season defensive difficulties sooner rather than later. The 3-0 drubbing at the Emirates seems like a very long time ago and that have maintain 9 clean sheets since in what is now a 11 game winning streak. The so called ‘accidental shift to a back three’ has completely transformed the Blues. Alonso and Moses are playing more like wingers than wing backs and there is two men chiefly responsible. Matic and Kante are holding the entire midfield on their own and producing the work rate of 3 or even 4 players. Diego Costa and Hazard have returned to the form we saw from them in their title winning run but Costa, the league’s leading scorer, and Kante will not take part in this one and are serving a one game suspension for receiving their 5th yellow card of the season. Fabregas will slot right in the centre of the park and Batshuayi will have plenty to prove. Bournemouth may sit 10th but their form away from home is far from flash. They have managed just 5 points away from home with losses in 3 of their last 5. Bournemouth did win at Stamford Bridge but that was a different Chelsea. Can’t see how they find the back of the net here.
Best: Teams To Score – Chelsea Only ($2.25)Value: Under 2.5 goals & Chelsea WIN ($3.60)

Leicester v Everton – (Tue 2:00am)The defending champions made one of the great escapes over the weekend. Jamie Vardy was wrongly sent off midway through the first half and went into the break two goals down. Ranieri must have given them one of his magic talks as the Foxes fought all the way until the final whistle with late goals to Ulloa and Amartey earning them the most unlikely point. Vardy’s appeal was rejected and he will serve a three match ban which will really hurt the Foxes and their attacking structure. We are likely to see them shift to a 4-4-2 with Slimani joined by either Okazaki or Ulloa. We should also see Demarai Gray get more game time as the season progresses but the key this week lies in their ability to stop The Toffees attack. Everton conceded a devastating goal in injury time but the reality is that after a good start they offered very little in the second half. They are lacking a x-factor in attack and without Bolasie they need more from Coleman and Baines on the flanks. The Wolf says to leave him out when it comes to the combination of McCarthy and Gueye. He has also officially called out Barkley and says he will have to start shouldering more responsibility for both creating and scoring. With just 2 goals and 2 assists from his 15 appearances in the league this season he quite frankly needs to produce more – especially when he plays in the hole behind Lukaku. With Vardy out for Leicester and the Toffees showing very little in attack we will be backing the Unders.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.90)Value: HT/FT – Everton/Draw ($15.00)

Man Utd v Sunderland – (Tue 2:00am)It seems like the Red Devils have been struggling for a while yet they have gone 10 games unbeaten across all competitions. It has more to do with the style they are playing rather than the results. Ibrahimovic has scored 8 in his last 7 games for the club and Mourinho looks content to run him into the ground. With 3 games in 7 days it will be interesting to see if he gets any rest. The introduction of Carrick into the centre of park over the last two months has been critical to their recent success and we could see Mkhitayan make an early return than expected. At home to Sunderland there can be no excuse for dropping points. Sunderland have lost 5 of their last 6 away from home and have failed to find the back of the net in each of those losses. United have tightened things up at the back and have conceded just once in their last four matches and with Bailly and Shaw set to return during the Christmas period the lights are getting brighter at Old Trafford. With 6 wins in their last 7 at home to the Black Cats they will be in complete control. It won’t rain goals though as Mourinho will give the order to control proceedings and conserve energy one they go up by two.
Best: Teams To Score – Man Utd Only ($1.75)Value: Correct Score Man Utd 2-0 ($6.00)

Hull v Man City – (Tue 4:15am)City have found their feet but they are still far from the side that we expected to run away with the Premier League this season. They picked up an all important 3 points with a come from behind win over Arsenal but it has been 10 games since Pep’s side has scored more than twice. The Wolf has been waiting for them to break the shackles but they are yet to do so. Aguero is suspended until the clash against Liverpool while Gundogan is still sidelined with injury. Fernandinho returns from suspension and will replace his namesake Fernando but they are yet to find someone to lead the attack in Aguero’s absence. Sterling, Nolito and Ihenacho have chipped in but combined they son’t come close to the class of the Argentine. Hull have been abysmal away from home with 6 straight losses in the league including trips to Watford, Sunderland and Middlesbrough – trips in which they would expect to take some points. At home they have been trouble by the big sides with losses to Chelsea, Arsenal and Man Utd. Conceding late goals has been a bad habit for the Tigers and their 9 goals allowed in the final 15 minutes is the second most in the league. City to run away with this one late.
Best: Second Half Goals Over 1.5 ($1.70)Value: Second Half Man City 3+ goals ($6.00)

Liverpool v Stoke – (Wed 4:15am)Sadio Mane is proving to be the buy of the season. He was the darling of Klopp and the Kop following a injury time winner against Everton in the world famous Merseyside Derby. His 8 goals and 6 assists have been notable but it is his speed, stamina and subsequent work rate which make him a pivotal figure in Liverpool’s squad. With a match against Man City to follow this is a must win match if they are to maintain or bridge the gap to Chelsea. Now to Stoke. The Wolf is livid with the Potters performance last week after tipping them to both win and maintain a clean sheet. They blew a two nil lead to a 10 man Leicester and there is absolutely no excuse. Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 EPL matches against Stoke and have the current longest unbeaten home run in the league – 15 games without defeat (9 wins, 6 draws). Interestingly, 5 of the last 7 meetings between the two sides have been settled by a single goal. The Wolf isn’t sold with Origi and Wijnaldum and says Stoke will keep themselves in this one for a significant chunk. It will be another late winner for the Reds.
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($2.60)Value: HT/FT – Draw/Liverpool ($4.25)

Southampton v Tottenham – (Thur 6:45am)Last week The Wolf labelled the upcoming month as critical for the Spurs. they managed to get past Burnley but their trip to St Mary’s Stadium will be a genuine test. Southamptom have not conceded a goal at home in over 5 hours of Premier League football. They shut out Liverpool and Everton before holding off Middlesbrough and have lost just 1 of their last 13 EPL matches at home. On the flip-side it has been 6 EPL games since Spurs won away from home and are coming off back to back away losses at Stamford Bridge and Old Trafford. They are a different side on the road and with just 3 goals in their last 5 away games The Wolf cannot see them grabbing all 3 points here. Kane has 7 goals this season but only 2 of those have come away from home. Rose and Walker have looked the most dangerous Spurs going forward but will need to keep opposing wing backs Cedric and Bertrand at bay. This one will be a defensive battle!
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.60)