"Opta remind us that the last two times Burnley went to the Etihad they drew 2-2 and 3-3 meaning they haven't found scoring particularly hard here."
Manchester City
City's run of three consecutive wins came to an end at the hands of Liverpool on New Year's Eve in a match where they should probably have taken something from it. Sergio Aguero returned for that one after his suspension but failed to score and will be keen to make amends for that irresponsible sending off that saw him miss four games, though to be fair, City won three of them.
Pep Guardiola is probably coming to terms with the fact that his side are unlikely to be winning the league this year with Chelsea in such irresistible form and will make finishing in the top four his priority.
Ilkay Gundogan's absence is perhaps starting to be felt more than some would have thought with Yaya Toure being a bit hit and miss these days. They could seriously do with Vincent Kompany finally being fit because John Stones hasn't exactly been a success story so far.
Burnley
Talk about Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde. Burnley have been excellent at home and dreadful on the road. They've won their last three at Turf Moor and lost their last three away from it. Prior to those three home wins they lost 2-1 in front of their own fans to...Manchester City.
Sean Dyche knows perfectly well that as long as his men carry on being so dominant at home they may just avoid relegation irrespective of what they do on the road. He also knows that a point here would be just as impressive as any of those home wins.
Andre Gray is fresh from scoring a hat-trick; it could have been four if he'd taken a late penalty instead of allowing Ashley Barnes to step up.
Match Odds
It's not much fun betting on the hosts at 1.19 but then again, it's hard to oppose them given what we've said about Burnley's form on the road. City to win to nil? It's 1.90and given the way they've defended of late, it's one to take on.
Opta remind us that the last two times Burnley went to the Etihad they drew 2-2 and 3-3 meaning they haven't found scoring particularly hard here.
Besides, five goals from their last two matches suggests Burnley's attackers have had their shooting boots on as of late and will be confident. A Clarets goal might be in vain but a City victory without conceding looks somewhat unlikely given everything we've said.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
Overs is around 1.48 with the thinking being that City might avenge their loss to Liverpool by taking out their frustration on the Clarets. It's not an unreasonable theory but the price is too short given Aguero may be a little on the rusty side and that this is their second match in less than 48 hours, so there may be some tired legs among their attackers who would have put a lot of energy into chasing the game against Liverpool.
To Score
Aguero is the obvious one but he's short enough at around 1.50. Raheem Sterling is one of those who is always tempting but doesn't score as many as he should. If you're desperate to have a bet on a City player grabbing one then Kevin de Bruyne at around 2.40 makes some appeal. But if like me, you believe Burnley can grab one then Gray has to be considered at 4.00.
Ref Watch
Lee Mason takes charge, a man who averages just short of four yellows a match and has shown just one red this season. My gut feels tells me there may actually be some cards here with Burnley happy to commit a few of those tactical fouls that spoil City's rhythm so keep an eye on the 9 points and above price.
Recommended Bet
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