Saturday 7:25pm at MCG
Dreamtime at the ‘G is always an incredibly special matchup between two clubs with a long and proud history of showcasing Indigenous talent. With this game almost pick ‘em, another classic is forecast.
FormRichmond have fallen to seventh on the ladder, winning their first five games of the season before dropping their next four. There have been some heartbreaking defeats in those four losses with their last three coming all by margins of fewer than five points. The Tigers have posted over 90 just three times this year and not since Round 4 but their defence is second in the AFL.
Essendon are 10th on the ladder, also with a 5-4 record. The Bombers have won back-to-back games against Geelong and West Coast, posting 110-plus in both of them. Prior to that they had won just 1 of 5. Essendon are 3-1 in their four MCG matches this year. Essendon rank 7th in attack but a lowly 14th in defence.
Stats That Matter
– Richmond have won five straight against Essendon with all wins by more than two goals.
– The under has hit in 6 of the last 9 matchups.
– The under is 44-29 in Richmond games at the MCG since 2012, including 8 of the last 9.
– The Tigers have covered 6 of their last 8 at the MCG.
– Essendon have covered 11 of their last 15 at the MCG.
– The over has hit in 6 of the last 7 Bombers MCG games.
– The Bombers have failed to cover the last six at the MCG when $2.00 or shorter.
– The Tigers have covered just 3 of their last 13 at the MCG when $2.00 or shorter.
– Non-interstate favourites of less than a goal cover at 58%.
– The under is 45-24 when a non-interstate single digit favourite conceded 80 or fewer last start.
– The under is 38-21 when a non-interstate single digit outsider conceded 80 or fewer last start and 19-8 when conceding 65 or fewer.
– Richmond have covered six straight night games.
– Essendon are 32-20 under at night since 2012.
– The under has hit in 6 of the last 9 matchups.
– The under is 44-29 in Richmond games at the MCG since 2012, including 8 of the last 9.
– The Tigers have covered 6 of their last 8 at the MCG.
– Essendon have covered 11 of their last 15 at the MCG.
– The over has hit in 6 of the last 7 Bombers MCG games.
– The Bombers have failed to cover the last six at the MCG when $2.00 or shorter.
– The Tigers have covered just 3 of their last 13 at the MCG when $2.00 or shorter.
– Non-interstate favourites of less than a goal cover at 58%.
– The under is 45-24 when a non-interstate single digit favourite conceded 80 or fewer last start.
– The under is 38-21 when a non-interstate single digit outsider conceded 80 or fewer last start and 19-8 when conceding 65 or fewer.
– Richmond have covered six straight night games.
– Essendon are 32-20 under at night since 2012.
Betting Data2017 Line: Richmond 7-2, Essendon 5-4
2017 Over-Under: Richmond 2-7, Essendon 6-3
2017 Over-Under: Richmond 2-7, Essendon 6-3
What To ExpectThe under in this one is the best total of Round 10 and close to the best bet of the week. All the angles point to it, most notable how small favourites go after conceding 80 or fewer and how small underdogs do after conceding 80 or fewer. These two have a history of under games, Richmond are a big under team at the MCG and the Bombers a huge under team at night.
How It’s Shaping UpRichmond by 6
Recommended Bet
Under 182.5 points ($1.87)
Under 182.5 points ($1.87)
Player MarketsDustin Martin has hit 120 in 4 of 9 games this year and enters this off a 122-point performance. Martin loves playing the Bombers, racking up 38 and 43 disposals in the two clashes last year.
Recommended Bet
Dustin Martin 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)
Dustin Martin 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.50)
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