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Canberra Raiders v Sydney Roosters

Sunday, May 28, 4pm (AEST), GIO Stadium, Canberra




The Roosters have been hit hard by Origin and face a tough road trip to the nation’s capital. The tri-colours will be missing Blake Ferguson, Mitchell Pearce, Boyd Cordner, Dylan Napa and Aidan Guerra for the clash against the Raiders, while Josh Papalii is the sole Origin representative for the Green Machine.
History
The Roosters have won 17 of their last 25 against the Raiders but Canberra have won the last three at Canberra Stadium, including a one-point thriller in Round 2 last year. The last six matches between the teams have all topped 38 points.
Form
Canberra ended a three-game losing streak that included a defeat to Newcastle with a 22-16 win over Parramatta in Sydney on Saturday night. The Raiders have moved into the Top 8 with their 5-6 record. The Raiders have conceded at least 16 in their last four. The Sydney Roosters are now fourth on the ladder with an 8-3 record. The Roosters have won 4 of their last 5 and have looked particularly impressive with the ball in hand posting scores of 48 and 24 in the last two matches. The Roosters have conceded more than 18 just. The Roosters have conceded more than 18 just twice this year.
Key Matchup
Joseph Leilua v Latrell Mitchell. It’s been a hot and cold season for Leilua and a quiet month other than the try he scored over the Eels last week. The Origin snub could bring out the best in him and he’ll be looking to get a points decision over the Roosters youngster Latrell Mitchell. Mitchell was simply outstanding in the win over the Bulldogs this week and will need to keep his cool against Leilua who will try and niggle him. The absence of Pearce hurts Mitchell’s prospects here, but it will be a good learning curve for the youngster who was dropped to the Wyong Roos earlier in the season.
Stats That Matter
Canberra are 7-4 ATS with a 6-5 under record while the Roosters are 5-6 ATS with a 6-5 under number. The Roosters have won 17 of their last 25 against the Raiders but Canberra have won the last three at Canberra Stadium. The last six matches between the teams have all topped 38 points. Canberra have gone over the total in 30 of their last 43 day games and 15 of their last 22 home day games. The Roosters have gone over in 8 of their last 11 day games on the road. The Roosters are 7-3 over as a small road outsider.
Final Thoughts
The Wolf is chips in on the Roosters for the premiership, but they’re simply missing too many troops to win this contest. The Raiders are tough at home and have the more settled line-up. Take the overs and the Raiders to cover.
How It’s Shaping Up
Canberra by 10
Best Bet
Over 42.5 ($1.88)

Other Recommended Bets
Canberra -6.5 ($1.91)

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