Kiradech Aphibarnrat -14 2.62
Romain Wattel -13 5.30
Joel Stalter -12 13.50
Lee Westwood -11 7.60
Joakim Lagergren -11 12.00
Sebastian Heisele -11 24.00
Joakim Lagergren -11 12.00
Sebastian Heisele -11 24.00
-9 and 40.00 bar
Kiradech Aphibarnrat is the man to be at the KLM Open after a five-under-par 66 in round three and I wouldn't want to put anyone off him. He has a solid enough record when leading or co-leading through 54 holes, although he's never broken 70 and he's only successfully converted once in five attempts. He won the Shenzhen International via a playoff in 2015, having led by two after three rounds, but later that year he could only finish fifth at the British Masters having been tied at the top after 54 holes. That's his worst effort to date when leading or co-leading after three rounds.
In Aphibarnrat's favour is the calibre of the immediate chasers. Romain Wattel has shot up the leaderboard courtesy of the best third round - a seven-under-par 64 - but it's hard to back up a low round and the Frenchman is usually poor in-contention anyway.
Joel Stalter has slipped from tied first at halfway to third and I fancy him to continue slipping. His only win on the Challenge Tour came from off the pace and he's never before been within four strokes with a round to go on the European Tour. He trailed by five at the South African Open in January but fell from fifth to seventh with a 71 in round four.
Lee Westwood is the big name looming large but he hasn't been a strong in-contention player in a long while and of the three on -11, the one I like best is Joakim Lagergren. He hasn't been especially convincing in-the-mix but he's far too talented not to get off the mark soon on the European Tour and 13.00 looked a fair price to me last night. He's capable of putting a strong run together and being slightly off the pace is a plus.
I've had a poor tournament from the start so far but I felt there was just enough juice in Lagergren's price for a small wager and I've also thrown a few pounds in the direction of the extremely talented Canadian - Austin Connelly. He has lots to do from five back but he has plenty of game and getting off the mark on the eve of his 21st birthday would make for a very nice way to start the celebrations.
Over at the BMW Championship, Dave Tindall's fancy, Marc Leishman, has stretched his lead to five after a neat and tidy three-under-par 68 at Conway Farms. Here's the leaderboard with prices to back at 08:05.
Marc Leishman -19 1.45
Rickie Fowler -14 8.20
Jason Day -14 8.80
Jason Day -14 8.80
Justin Rose -12 44.00
-11 and 65.00 bar
Jason Day was six clear with a round to go on the last occasion the BMW was staged at Conway Farms and fellow Australian, Leishman, now leads by five. Trading at around 1.45, he looks a perfectly fair price given 21 of 26 (81%) five stroke 54 hole leaders since 1996 have gone on to win on the PGA Tour and I certainly wouldn't advocate laying him.
Leishman has led or co-led four times through 54 holes to date and he's converted twice but he did fail last time out at the Dell Technologies Championship when the wheels fell off on the back-nine after he'd traded at long odds-on at the turn in round four.
Anyone that followed Dave in on Leishman before the off may want to lay a bit back at around the 1.45 for a stress-free final round but it's hard to see him getting beat from here. Justin Rose and Jon Rahm looked fractionally big last night at 60.00 and 75.00 but they've shortened up overnight and it's a no-bet heat for me at present.
11:05 - September 16, 2017
The second round of the KLM Open has only just finished and the third round is already off and running. Here's the 36-hole leaderboard with prices to back at 10:50.
Joakim Lagergren -10 7.20
Joel Stalter -10 15.50
Kiradech Aphibarnrat -9 6.00
Richard Finch -9 40.00
Richard Finch -9 40.00
Sebastian Heisele -8 34.00
Bernd Wiesberger -7 6.40
Lee Westwood -7 9.60
Ashun Wu -7 16.00
Lee Westwood -7 9.60
Ashun Wu -7 16.00
-6 and 30.00 bar
I don't like these weather interrupted events as it makes it very difficult to update the blog and it's hard to gauge who's fresh and who's jaded. Some of the leaders have been out on the course this morning and some have had a lie in. Working out who's happiest about their respective scenarios is largely guesswork.
As a general rule - I tend to slightly favour those that have played and played well, rather than those that have slept on a lead or with the knowledge that they're in-contention but it's never easy. Those that have played this morning will have been up very early and it's going to be a long day. Fatigue could well be an issue later today and even tomorrow so it's very hard to weigh up.
I was interested in Ashun Wu, who's crept in to the mix nicely this morning but he's no bigger than 16/1 and that's a shade short for me and the only one I'm chancing this morning is one of those that hasn't played today - Marc Warren.
The market is often slow to react to a sudden improvement in form and that seems to be the case with Warren. He's been out of form for a while but he's one of those tied for ninth and four off the lead this morning. He's got his work cut out to get to the leaders but he shouldn't be as big as 40.00 and I was happy to take a tiny chance on him in what looks a really tricky heat.
Over in the States, we've reached the halfway stage of the BMW Championshipand it looks like the tournament now revolves around three men. And every credit goes to Dave Tindall - as he's got two of them onside from the off! Here's the 36 hole leaderboard with prices to back at 11:00.
Marc Leishman -16 3.05
Rickie Fowler -13 3.95
Jason Day -13 4.30
Jason Day -13 4.30
Patrick Cantlay -10 27.00
-9 and 26.00 bar
First round leader, Marc Leishman, backed up his opening 62 on Thursday with a seven-under-par 64 yesterday and incredibly, he's birdied half the holes he's played this week! After birdying the first, progress was slow yesterday until a big turning pint at the seventh hole gave him momentum.
A poor drive had seen him have to hack out on to the fairway, leaving what looked a tough enough up-and-down. A par looked a tough assignment from 51 yards out but his third shot found the bottom of the cup, when it could have easily ran by to leave a tricky par save. That gave him an understandable lift and he went on to birdie holes eight and nine as well before a three-under-par back-nine saw him seize the initiative.
This is the first time the Aussie has held a clear lead on the PGA Tour and it's only the third time he's held even a share of the lead. When tied at the top through 36 holes at the Travelers Championship last year, and at the Quicken Loans National back in 2014, he didn't fare great, finishing ninth and eighth so that's most certainly a negative. On the last occasion he was tied at halfway on the Web.Com Tour he didn't fare well either, eventually finishing outside the top-ten at the 2008 Miccosukee Championship but that came just a fortnight after he'd converted a three-shot 36-hole lead at the WNB Golf Classic in to an 11-stroke victory so there's at least one piece of evidence to suggest he could run away from the field here.
Historical in-contention data can only take us so far, and how Leishman contended nine years ago, or even two years ago, could be misleading. One could argue he's a completely different player now and that we can ignore everything he's done before. He's far more experienced now and he's already a winner this year (at the Arnold Palmer Invitational) but I'm in no rush to back him at around 2/1, even though he's playing some sensational golf. Winning wire-to-wire is notoriously hard and how he begins his third round today will be crucial.
If he can go another one or two strokes clear he may get so comfortable that he just runs away from the rest - like Jason Day did two years ago at Conway Farms - but a jittery, nervy start could be catastrophic and I'm more than happy to sit back and see what happens.
The market favours Fowler over Day and I can see why. He's playing slightly better golf than Day - finding more fairways and greens - and Day owes his lofty position to two eagles on the back-nine yesterday. A chip-in three at the par five 14th hole and this hole-in-one at the 17th.
Jordan Spieth, who trails the leader by nine after a disappointing second round, is the only player other than the fourth placed, Patrick Cantly, to be trading at less than 60.00 but he looks too far back to me. It looks highly likely to concern the front three only and I'm more than happy to leave the event alone for now.
There have to be question marks over Leishman's ability to close it out but equally, I wouldn't be surprised if he kicked clear. Fowler is often a disappointment in-the-mix and I'm not convinced Day is playing quite well enough to beat either of the other two, if they don't wobble. There may only be three realistic candidates for the title but all things considered it's a really tricky tournament to weigh up and I'm going to pass. If absolutely forced to name one it would be Fowler but I'm more than happy to sit on my hands for now.
12:00 - September 15, 2017
I'd highlighted in the KLM Open preview that an early start could well be advantageous yesterday and the weather certainly deteriorated as the day wore on. So much so that play was eventually suspended and any benefit gained by the early starters was lost when it soon became apparent that any further play for the day was impossible.
Those originally drawn to struggle in the horrendous conditions yesterday afternoon have been out on the course this morning and Bernd Wiesberger and Richard Finch, who recorded five-under-par 66s to lead yesterday morning, have already been caught and passed.
Mikko Ilonen has made history this morning by recording the European Tour's 1000th hole-in-one at the 14th hole and I've thrown a few pounds at another Finn - Mikko Korhonen. I managed to get a few small bets matched at an average of 34.00 when he still had three par fives to play but he parred the first two before bogeying the 18th to drop out of the lead!
The second round won't conclude today so it's a messy picture and I'll take another look at the close of play but I'm already behind the eight ball. I quite fancied the pre-tournament favourite and defending champ, Joost Luiten, but his chance had gone before I'd even had my breakfast yesterday, after he opened up the event with four straight bogeys!
Marc Leishman shows the way at the BMW Championship after an impressive nine-under-par 62 but it's a very congested high-class leaderboard. Jason Day, whose course form figures before the event read 4-1, has confirmed his liking for Conway Farms with a seven-under-par 64 and he sits alongside Charley Hoffman and Jamie Lovemark. Pre-event favourite Jordan Spieth and the well-fancied Rickie Fowler are among the five players tied for fifth on six-under-par.
Having played Spieth before the off (and Justin Thomas who shot 67 yesterday) I'm happy with how the event has started. On his last two appearances, Spieth has finished runner-up despite a couple of fairly slow starts so I'm hopeful yesterday's decent knock sets him up nicely.
I'm going to stick with what I have there for now and I'll take a more detailed look at halfway.
KLM Open Pre-Event Selections:
Joost Luiten @ 18.50
Chris Wood @ 50.00
Aaron Rai @ 60.00
Alvaro Quiros @ 350.00
In-Play Pick
Mikko Korhonen @ 34.00
Marc Warren @ 40.00
Joakim Lagergren @ 13.00
Austin Connelly @ 48.00
BMW Championship Pre-Event Selections:
Jordan Spieth @ 8.60
Justin Thomas @ 13.00
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