Saturday, September 23, 7:40pm (AEST) at Allianz Stadium, Sydney
The Cowboys have been the giant-killers of the finals series, defeating both the Sharks and Eels when they were rank outsiders in both matches. They’ll look to continue to ride the wave and have received a massive boost in the lead-up to the clash against the Roosters, with prop Matt Scott named on the extended bench as he looks to make a shock return from an ACL injury. He still has to prove his fitness but will definitely be there if the Cowboys reach the grand final. The Roosters are at full strength, with Daniel Tupou replacing Ryan Matterson in the starting side and Matterson shifting to the bench. Roosters coach Trent Robinson has declared Michael Morgan as the form player of the NRL and will encourage his troops to put him under plenty of pressure.
HistoryThe Roosters have won four of their last five against the Cowboys, with the Roosters only loss during this period, a 40-0 loss at Townsville last year. The Roosters won this year’s Round 21 clash 22-16 at Allianz Stadium. Roosters flyer Latrell Mitchell has scored a try in his last two matches against the Cowboys.
FormThe Sydney Roosters finished the season ranked second with the seventh rated attack to go with their third ranked defence. The Roosters have won four straight but all by margins of four points or less with their last win over a converted try in Round 20 against Newcastle. The Roosters have won nine on end at Allianz Stadium. The Roosters have conceded at least 14 points in seven straight. North Queensland have been masters of the upset throughout the finals, stunning Cronulla and Parramatta on the road after finishing eighth on the ladder. The Cowboys ground down the Sharks 15-14 before smashing the Eels 24-14. The Cowboys have the fifth best defence while they rank 10th in scoring. The Cowboys have kept teams to 14 or fewer in three of their last four.
Stats That Matter
– Sydney Roosters are 12-13 ATS with a 15-10 under number while North Queensland are 17-9 ATS with a 17-9 under record.
– The Sydney Roosters have won four of their last five against North Queensland.
– The last four matches have all failed to top 40 points.
– The Roosters have won the last three meetings at Allianz Stadium but none by more than 12 points.
– The teams met in the 2014 finals series with the Roosters winning a thriller 31-30 after blowing a 30-0 lead.
– The over is 8-2 in preliminary finals over the last five seasons.
– The Roosters have covered just 1 of their last 7 finals matches while the Cowboys have covered nine of their last 12.
– The Cowboys are 30-19 ATS interstate since 2014, covering 10 of their last 12.
– As an interstate outsider of more than a converted try, the Cowboys are 8-3 ATS.
– The Roosters have covered just 4 of their last 11 at Allianz.
– The Chooks have covered just 1 of their last 5 at Allianz as a favourite of more than a converted try.
– The Roosters are 15-24 ATS after scoring 25-plus points since 2014.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is very wary of writing off the Cowboys, but is tipping that their fairy tale run comes to an end at Allianz Stadium on Saturday night against a full strength Roosters side. In saying that, the Cowboys could have arguably won this year’s Round 21 clash and the +8 start looks a strong play in what should be a low-scoring affair.
How It’s Shaping UpSydney by 4
Best Bet
North Queensland +8 ($1.91)
North Queensland +8 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Under 37.5 ($1.90)
Under 37.5 ($1.90)
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