EFL Cup: 3rd Round

Burnley v Leeds – (Wed 4:45am)

Burnley are unbeaten in their last 4 games across all competitions and have now taken points off both Tottenham and Liverpool. The Wolf says they are significantly overvalued as a result and has warned us not to write off Leeds. The former Premier League giants are off to a flyer in the Championship and sit top of the table thanks to 4 wins in their last 5. The key to their success has been their defence and they can thank their manager for it. Thomas Christiansen managed with great success in Cyprus with back to back runner up finishes with Larnaca before winning the title with APOEL who are now in the Champions League. He has brought genuine tactical awareness to a  very young side and they will have the game plan to shut down former striker Chris Wood. The club made full use of the $16 million Euro’s obtained from his sale bringing in more than half a dozen players – many of whom are regulars in the starting XI. The Under is 5-0 in Burnley’s last 5 across all competitions and with Leeds conceding just 2 goals in their last 8 finding the back of the net will not be easy in this one. Under 2.5 goals is the best bet with Leeds a genuine chance at springing an upset.

Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.90)
Value: Draw ($3.60)

Tottenham v Barnsley – (Wed 5:00am)

Spurs are yet to register their first Premier League win at their temporary home ground (Wembley) and finding the back of the net at the venue has been a genuine problem with multiple goals in just 1 of their 4 home matches at the venue this season (all competitions). Getting it done against Barnsley should not be a problem and this match presents Pochettino with a opportunity to give some of his squad players game time. Llorente is likely to get the start up front with Son, Walker-Peters and Aurier also likely to get the nod. Barnsley have had serious troubles away from home. They have lost 8 of their last 10 road games in The Championship and this will be a new experience for mush of their young squad. There will be a handful of Spurs players pushing for a starting gig and The Wolf expects them to be focused and clinical.

Best: Teams To Score – Tottenham Only ($1.72)
Value: Time of 1st Goal – 15th minute or Earlier ($2.50)

Everton v Sunderland – (Thur 4:45am)

The Toffees had no choice but to sell Lukaku for the money they were offered by Man Utd but it has left a gaping hole in their squad. They have failed to get their hands on another striker that can play the target role and finding the net has become a major problem as a result. They have now lost their last 4 competitive matches and failed to score a single goal in the process. They were gallant against the Red Devils but conceded 3 goals in the final 10 minutes which will have  a brutal affect on team morale. It has been a similar story for Sunderland who languish in 21st place in The Championship. Rooney, Gilfy and Schneiderlin are likely to sit this one out but their absence is unlikely to have a bearing on the final result. Everton did the double over Sunderland in the Premier League last season but the Black Cats had won 4 of the last 7 before that. There is still plenty of EPL experience in the side with O’Shea, McNair, Cattermole and McGeady among others and somehow Sunderland have lost just 1 of their 6 away games this season. Everton are in a deep hole in the moment and until they find some form in attack The Wolf is happy to take them on at the price.

Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.90)
Value: Double Chance – Draw or Sunderland ($3.40)

West Brom v Man City – (Thur 5:00am)

It may have taken more than 12 months, multiple transfer windows and a full off-season but it is becoming clear that Pep Guardiola is finally putting his imprints onto Man City. They have scored 15 goals in their last 3 wins alone with the 6-0 drubbing of Watford highlighted by a Aguero hat-trick. The scary part for Man City opponents in the smaller competitions (like this one) is that there is no room for relief as their squad has incredible depth. When Gundogan, Sane, Danilo, Mangala, Delph and Bernardo Silva cannot make the starting XI you know you have a serious squad at your disposal. The Baggies have lost just once in the Premier League this season but they are yet to meet a side of City’s quality. City have won the last 11 encounters between the two sides and scored 3 or more goals in 8 of those matches. With the way they are playing at the moment The Wolf says there can only be one result!

Best: Man City Over 2.5 goals ($2.15)
Value: Man City Win Both Halves ($2.40)

Man Utd v Burton – (Thur 5:00am)

United’s 4-0 win over Everton was not as convincing as the scoreline reflects but the Red Devils continue to be in complete control. The Wolf saw Leeds put 5 past Burton a fortnight ago and says The Championship side face an insurmountable task. We will see Smalling, Darmian, Carrick, Martial and Lingard inserted into the starting line up and with all of them challenging for starting spots we will see the Man Utd of old. We are seeing them play a much more expansive brand of football in comparison to last season and it is the main reason why they are now scoring freely. Mourinho’s side have gone over 400 minutes of football at Old Trafford without conceding and there is no doubt that the focus will again be on maintaining a clean sheet.

Best: Teams To Score – Man Utd Only ($1.75)
Value: 2nd Half Man Utd 3+ goals ($3.20)