Liverpool 1.25 v Huddersfield 14.50; The Draw 7.20
(Significant Opta Stat: Liverpool have conceded 16 league goals so far this season; their highest total after nine top flight games since the 1964/65 campaign.)
Liverpool have been a short-price backer's nightmare throughout 2017, so having started this season with their worst defensive record in over 50 years - see the above stat - there's no way I want to touch them at 1.25. Not that I would at that price in this column anyway, but I'm sure you know what I mean.
Jurgen Klopp's men can be breathtaking on their day, at least in an attacking sense, but if they have an off day, as they so often seem to have, then no result should surprise us.
From the start of the year the Reds have had results reading 2-2 at Sunderland, 0-0 at home to Plymouth, back-to-back 1-0 defeats to Southampton in the EFL Cup, home defeats to Swansea and Wolves, a 2-0 loss at Hull, a 3-1 defeat at Leicester, just a home draw with Bournemouth, another shock defeat at Anfield to Crystal Palace, a 0-0 draw at home to the Saints, a 1-1 draw at home to Burnley, and another 1-1 draw in Moscow.
That's 13 games where they either lost, or failed to win, when an odds-on price, and in some cases a huge odds-on price. And there's more too, like the 3-3 draw at Watford at the start of this season, the EFL Cup defeat at Leicester, and the 1-1 draw with Newcastle recently. Another three examples of Liverpool failing to win at an odds-on price.
I accept that the Reds could easily win Saturday's home game against Huddersfield by three or four, but I'm taking into account that they go into this match on the back of another defensive horror show, and that the Terriers are buoyed by their tremendous victory over Manchester United.
David Wagner's men are yet to be embarrassed in the Premier League on their travels and I fancy them to keep this game tight also, and given Liverpool's defence it's not unreasonable to suggest they can get on the scoresheet at Anfield.
If they do, then Klopp's men will need to score at least three to deny the recommended wager, and that's a big ask given their dreadful record in such games throughout 2017.
Recommended Bets Back Huddersfield +2 @ 6/5 (best bet)
Watford 2.12 v Stoke 3.80; The Draw 3.60
(Significant Opta Stat: Watford have lost just two of their nine Premier League games this season, one against the current leaders (Man City), the other against the reigning champions (Chelsea).)
You could be forgiven for expecting Watford to be odds-on to win this game given the start they've had to this season's campaign, so at 2.12 to back I'm sure they'll be many people's idea of a home banker this weekend.
True, the Hornets haven't exactly set the world alight at Vicarage Road, winning just one of their four home league games to date, but they did put three past Liverpool on the opening day of the season, and that one victory came against Arsenal, while their only defeat was at the hands of unstoppable Manchester City.
So there isn't really much wrong with Marco Silva's men on home soil, while their away performances this term - albeit against some of the division's lesser lights - stands them out as an above average outfit, capable of sustaining their berth in the top half of the table.
Brazilian youngster Richarlison has become an instant hit, but even his three league goals to date is one short of how many the impressive French attacking midfielder Abdoulaye Doucoure has netted, while former Manchester United starlet Tom Cleverley has matured into an excellent, and reliable midfielder.
There is lots to like about this Watford team, and as long as their morale hasn't been dented after last week's loss at Chelsea - they really could have scored four or five at Stamford Bridge - then they look a decent wager to beat out-of-form Stoke.
Mark Hughes' men currently sit just one place above the relegation zone following a run of just one win in their last eight league and cup games, and away from home they've picked up just a solitary point thanks to a 1-1 draw at West Brom, losing their four other away matches this term and conceding 12 goals in the process.
Following this fixture the Potters face the likes of Leicester, Crystal Palace, Brighton, and Swansea in the next five weeks so there's a lot of pressure on Hughes to climb the table before Christmas given those winnable games, but I fear he'll start the run with a defeat at Watford and the pressure will be cranked up even further.
Recommended Bet Back Watford to Win @2.12
West Brom 12.50 v Man City 1.28; The Draw 6.80
(Significant Opta Stat: West Brom have lost 11 consecutive Premier League matches against Manchester City, and 14 of their last 15 against the Citizens.)
That Opta stat above makes for dreadful reading if you're a Baggies fan, and it actually gets even worse because following Man City's 2-1 EFL Cup win at the Hawthorns earlier in the season the Citizens have now won 12 on the spin against West Brom in all competitions.
The aggregate scoreline in that time is 33-8 with City recording a two-goal winning margin (or better) in six of the last eight meetings. The current favourites for title have also scored at least three goals in each of their last four Premier League visits to the Hawthorns.
But the worst news for Albion fans - and they'll know this fine well - is that City are in scintillating form currently, and simply look unstoppable.
Pep Guardiola's men are averaging over 3.5 goals per game in the Premier League, and their winning margins alone average over three goals per game (goal difference of +28 after nine league games). They also have the joint best defensive record, have won seven consecutive league matches, and away from home they have a 100% win record in all competitions this term - played six, won six.
It's obviously a no-brainer of a selection to suggest that Man City will record yet another victory, but a price of 4/5 about them winning by at least two goals - or 21/10 to win by at least three if you're feeling a tad braver - makes plenty of appeal.
It's difficult to know how Tony Pulis will approach this match. If he sets his men up with a defensive mentality, and they concede early, they could cop for a big defeat, so given he'll probably view this as a free swing he might just go for it. The problem with that of course is that the Baggies are now eight games without a win in all competitions so confidence surely can't be very high within the squad.
But however Albion approach this fixture this really should boil down to how Man City play, and if they perform anywhere near like they have in most games this season then a straightforward win should be recorded.
Recommended Bet Back Man City -1 to Win @ 4/5 (sportsbook)