Milan v Juventus Saturday, 17:00 Live on BT Sport 3 and Betfair Live Video
When Juve lost to Lazio a couple of weeks ago, some felt that cracks were starting to show and that this could finally be the year that their Serie A dominance ended. That might still be the case, but Max Allegri's team look like they're relishing the challenge, and mustn't be written off.
They've come from behind to beat Sporting, they trounced Udinese with 10 men, and they saw off SPAL 4-1. They've conceded goals in all of those games, and Allegri admits that this is a worry, but the streetfighters from Turin are showing a different way of doing things, and they'll head to Milan trying to crush any green shoots that are appearing for the Rossoneri.
I fancy Juve to win, but I do think that they're a bit short at2.00, and given the2.02that's available for Over 2.5 Goals, I think that the value lies there. Milan bounced back against Chievo in midweek, were back amongst the goals themselves, but look similarly vulnerable defensively, with or without Leo Bonucci. (He's suspended against his old team this weekend.)
Juve's last five have all gone over the 2.5 mark, and they'll dictate the pace and the style of the game to try and win it. Much though I fancy them to have too much for Milan, goals is the bet.
Recommended Bet Back Over 2.5 Goals in Milan v Juve @2.02
Udinese v Atalanta Sunday, 15:00 Live on Betfair Live Video
There'll also be goals in Udine, as Gigi Del Neri tries to build on the big win in midweek against Sassuolo, and having saved his job there, hope to start sending his team up the table.
Gian Piero Gasperini has made it clear that Atalanta will be prioritising the Europa League this season, and they've done so wonderfully well, but at the expense of their League position.
They're now ninth though after two consecutive wins, and while they're a bit short to win at Udinese at around2.10, there's every chance that they'll get the job done. Gasperini will be worried at how open his team look this season, having defended so well in the last campaign, but going out and attacking teams is working for them at the moment (just ask Everton) and I don't think that they'll change their way of doing things here.
Four of their last five games have gone over 2.5 goals, and given that only two of Udinese's 11 matches so far this season have had at least three goals, that outcome shouldn't be trading at even money here.
There's every chance that, in a week of slim pickings, this could be the game of the weekend, and we can profit from that.
Recommended Bet Back Over 2.5 Goals in Udinese v Atalanta @2.00
SPAL v Genoa Sunday, 15:00 Live on Betfair Live Video
As I've mentioned already, this is an uninspiring weekend away from the two games above, with so many short priced favourites that I'm finding it hard to oppose.
So I'll take a chance on SPAL: I thought that they played pretty well against Juventus in that 4-1 defeat last time, and even though their season is yet to catch fire, they can move out of the relegation zone with a win here against a poor Genoa team.
I like SPAL's experienced strikeforce of Marco Borriello and Alberto Paloschi, and with Genoa short of goals and inspiration, SPAL look a little big at3.20 to get their second Serie A win against a team that they haven't met since 1981.
A look at both teams' records this season shows what we're dealing with here: two teams that are destined to struggle, and creditably though Ivan Juric's Genoa performed against Napoli last time and Milan the game before, I think that they could be in for a shock here. SPAL are no Benevento, and are starting to adjust to life in Serie A. Enough to believe that this is a game that they might win.