Bristol City v Man City: Johnson to make his mark but Pep can still prevail

Bristol City v Man City
Tuesday 9th January, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports

Robins primed for a special night

Bristol City ended a run of five straight defeats with a 0-0 draw at Derby on Friday. The Robins threatened sporadically but spent most of the 90 minutes on the back foot with centre back Aden Flint surviving a late penalty scare when Cameron Jerome was yellow carded for simulation, despite television footage showing clear contact.

The match at Pride Park was also notable for two substitutions. Keeper Frank Fielding(groin) and centre back Nathan Baker (ankle) were both forced off at half time, although neither injury is thought to be serious.

Baker's recovery is more important. Fielding has an able deputy in Luke Steele, who was excellent in repelling the Rams after the break. He also played when Manchester United were beaten in the last round.

It's now five successive matches that Bristol City haven't scored from open play, Bobby Reid's penalty in the first leg at the Etihad remains their only goal in 2018. But they've been up against stiff opposition lately in Wolves, Aston Villa and Derby. The only unexpected result was a 1-0 home defeat to Norwich the weekend before last.

We shouldn't hold that recent form against Lee Johnson's men. They tasted defeat only three times in their opening 29 matches this term and the Carabao Cup has been a welcome distraction this season. In front a partisan capacity crowd, a monumental effort is virtually guaranteed.

Guradiola to rotate - but how much?

Pep Guardiola has a dilemma over how much to rotate with Man City in the driving seat, sitting on a 2-1 lead following Sergio Aguero's last-gasp winner a fortnight ago.

The Sky Blues were given a fright that night. It wasn't a case of them underestimating Bristol City, more that nobody expected a Championship side to be so positive, energetic and aggressive with their pressing as the away side.

The runaway Premier League leaders have been marginally - but noticeably - weaker in this competition. Their ball retention is just as impressive and they control the play for long periods, but any compromises in team selection - such as Claudio Bravo replacing Edersonin goal - ultimately results in them being less accomplished at both ends of the pitch.

With a lead to protect, we should expect Guardiola to give the nod to those fringe players who look after the ball best - such as Ilkay Gundogan and Bernardo Silva - while keeping one or two of his big hitters on the bench should a goal be required later on. Therefore, his biggest gamble might be leaving Kevin De Bruyne on the bench.

Kyle Walker is also a regular sub in cup games, while David Silva could be absent altogether. The Spaniard has missed seven of the last 11 games to spend time with his family, following the premature birth of his son.

For all of Man City's abundant quality, he's the player they miss most. De Bruyne produces moments of individual brilliance but its Silva's presence of mind that turns the collective into a well-oiled machine. He makes everyone else around him that little bit more effective.

Robins can make their mark, then run out of steam

If you're looking for a pattern to follow, you can do worse than Bristol City's last two matches in this competition, against both Manchester clubs, minus the stoppage time drama. The Robins are 4.50 to score the first goal and the 1-1 correct score can also be backed at 13.00, both of which go against the expected narrative but look like excellent value.

Unlikely though it is that this competition's unique take on the away goals rule (applicable after 120 minutes) becomes relevant, it was striking that Lee Johnson referenced the 1-0 scoreline being enough to take his team to Wembley in the immediate aftermath of their late heartbreak at the Etihad.

Given their troubles in the final third of late, the idea will only have solidified in Johnson's mind that 1-0 is by far the most likely way that Bristol City pull off the unthinkable here, which isn't to say they will diverge too far from the tactics that brought them such acclaim in the first game.

If the Robins press Guardiola's men as aggressively as they did a fortnight ago, then the result might be chaos and plenty of goalmouth action but more turnovers doesn't always translate into an abundance of goals. Either way, you'd expect the visitors to have more in the tank and finish the stronger.