AFL Preview Round 6: Bulldogs v Blues

Western Bulldogs v Carlton
Fri 7:50pm at Etihad Stadium

It’s no Friday night blockbuster, but the Bulldogs and Blues will be doing battle at Etihad stadium to open Round 6. Never, in 121 years, has Carlton started a season 0-6, so this game is huge for Brendan Bolton’s young side. Surely the ignominy of setting such a terrible club record would be a bitter blow for the struggling club- although by now at least Blues supporters are prepared for disappointment. The Bulldogs have plenty to prove themselves after a limp effort in their 54 point drubbing at the hands of the Dockers last round, so it is safe to say there is a lot riding on this game for the respective sides.

Form

Bulldogs (LLWLL) – The Doggies had finally appeared to make some inroads with their win over the Gold Coast and close loss to the Swans- but that was all undone last round as they succumbed meekly by 54 points to the Dockers in Perth. Of particular concern to Luke Beveridge will be the way the Dogs returned to their bad habits that have been hounding them since the start of 2017- low pressure, low effort and a high amount of ugly turnovers.  

Blues (LLLLL) – The poor old Blues. You can see the effort is there (sometimes), but they lack class and polish- and are one of those teams that can pull a loss out of a winning situation. They tried hard against the Eagles, somewhat redeeming themselves after the horror 86 point to the Roos. Patrick Cripps was incredible, despite being tagged, and finished with 34 disposals (19 contested), 8 clearances, 7 inside 50’s, 11 tackles and 138 Fantasy points.

Stats That Matter– The Bulldogs have won the past 3 meetings
– Jackson Macrae is averaging 30 disposals and 117 Fantasy points per game in 2018
– Neither side is averaging more than 75 points a game this season
– Carlton have lost 5 of their past 7 games at Etihad
– In their last 3 games the Dogs are 0-3 on the Over/Under
– Carlton’s average losing margin this season is 36 points

Betting Data

2018 Line: Bulldogs- 2-3; Blues- 2-3
2018 Over-Under: Bulldogs- 2-3; Blues- 2-3

What To Expect

The Wolf is expecting Carlton to break their 121 year record and record their 6 loss in a row to start the season- but has some hope for them to challenge the spread, which currently sits at +16.5. The Bulldogs midfield should prove to be too good at Etihad, but they are certainly not the morals their price suggests, making the 1-39 margin the safe play provided the Blues actually turn up. Dogs should win, but 2018 is a funny old season.

How It’s Shaping UpWestern Bulldogs by 13

Recommended Bets

Best: Western Bulldogs 1-39 ($2.15)
Value: Bontempelli 2+ goals/Macrae 30+ Disposals ($3.22)
Player Prop: Patrick Cripps 120+ Fantasy points ($3.50)
First Goalscorer: Marcus Bontempelli ($17.00)