Parramatta Eels v Wests Tigers Sunday, April 29, 4:10pm (AEST) ANZ Stadium, Sydney
You would expect a few smiles at Eels training this week after they recorded their first win of the season with a 44-10 demolition of the Sea Eagles. They got one back on the Sea Eagles after they were hammered 54-0 by Manly at Brookvale. The Eels will be looking to do the same against the Tigers after the Tigers defeated the Eels 30-20 on Easter Monday earlier this month. Bevan French replaces the injured Jarryd Hayne, while Tigers co-captain Chris Lawrence returns for Wests.
FormParramatta’s winless start to the season ended at six after a devastating 44-10 revenge win over Manly. The Eels remain last with the worst attack and the 11th ranked defence. The Wests Tigers remain fourth with a 5-2 record despite losing on the bell to Newcastle in Tamworth. The Tigers have the second best defence but rank a lowly 10th in scoring.
Key MatchupMitchell Moses v Luke Brooks: Mitchell Moses bounced back to form with a man of the match performance in the big win over the Sea Eagles. Moses had four try-assists and kicked eight goals in the 34-point win. He would love to replicate the performance against his former club and great mate Luke Brooks. The Tigers halfback is in career best form and has 10 Dally M votes to his name through seven rounds. The Eels will need to shake his confidence by hitting him hard when he takes on the line.
Stats That Matter– Parramatta are 1-6 ATS with a 4-3 under record while the Wests Tigers are 6-1 ATS with a 4-3 under number. – Parramatta hold a 20-15-1 all-time record against the Wests Tigers and have won four of the last six though the Tigers won 30-20 when the teams met in Round 4. – The Eels hold a 9-4 all-time edge at ANZ Stadium. – Over the last four seasons, Parramatta are 15-13 ATS at ANZ with a 19-9 under record while the Wests Tigers are 16-8 ATS with a 13-11 under record. – The Tigers are 2-0 ATS as a favourite at the ground while the Eels are 7-4 ATS as an outsider. – The Tigers have covered 13 of their last 16 overall. – The under is 44-28 after teams score 40-plus. – The Eels are 5-9 ATS with a 10-4 under record off a win of 13-plus. – The under is 13-3 after the Tigers conceded 20 or more.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is tipping a very close affair and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a Moses field goal decide it. The statistics back up an unders match here and that’s the way The Wolf sees it too.
How It’s Shaping UpParramatta by 1
Recommended BetsBest: Under 38.5 ($1.91) Value: Parramatta 1-12 ($3.20) First Tryscorer: Bevan French ($11)