Swansea v Chelsea Saturday April 28 17:30 Live on BT Sport 1
Swans should just about stay up
Given what's happened at Swansea this season - change of Manager and loss of their two star players in Gylfi Sigurdsson and Fernando Llorente - they'll be absolutely delighted just to still be in this division come May.
And they probably will. West Brom are far too back and they're then four points ahead of Southampton and Stoke City. This is obviously a tough match but after that it's Bournemouth away and back-to-back home matches against...Southampton and Stoke. Assuming they don't lose either of them, they should be ok. Just.
But if they do stay up, manager Carlos Carvalhal's work for next season will probably begin on the Monday after the last day of the season. There are too many weaknesses in the squad to mention with the possible exception of in goal, where Lukas Fabianski has had another stellar season.
Aside from long-term absentees like Leroy Fer and Wilfried Bony, they'll also have to make do without Tammy Abraham, who can't play against his parent club.
What next for Conte?
What a mixed season for the Blues. An FA Cup final place is a good effort and there's no disgrace in being knocked out of Europe by Barcelona. But a probable fifth place finish in the league is pretty mind-boggling for a side who won it a canter last year with virtually the same squad and for the most part, the same system.
We'll have to wait and see whether Antonio Conte is still in charge next season. The smart money is on him and Chelsea parting ways. Roman Abramovich won't have been best impressed with results, Conte won't have been best pleased about the fact that with the exception of Alvaro Morata (who has been pretty average) and Olivier Giroud in January (who has been pretty good), he wasn't allowed to bring in the players he wanted.
Marcos Alonso continues to miss out after that horror tackle at Southampton deservedly earnt him a three match ban.
Contrasting stats make match odds market tough to call
If you like to primarily use stats to try to work out what might happen in a football match, good luck to you ahead of this one.
Swansea, who are 8.20, have won just one of their 13 Premier League games against Chelsea. But then again, they've already beaten Arsenal and Liverpool at home this season so are certainly capable of taking out the big guns on home soil. Both stats are courtesy of Opta.
Chelsea, who are 1.55, have won their last two games on the road plus one last weekend on neutral territory in the FA Cup. But that's countered by the fact that in seven visits to the Liberty Stadium in all competitions, they've won just twice, and failed to do so in either of their last two attempts.
With that in mind and the fact that this game means as much to Swansea as it does to Chelsea (if not more), you could say Chelsea are too short. But not quite worth taking on.
Giroud more than just a super sub
A few eyebrows were raised when Olivier Giroud was bought from Arsenal in the January transfer window.
Not because of his all-round quality or goalscoring record - no-one doubts either of those - but because perhaps he was a little too 'samey' when compared to Alvaro Morata. Yes, Chelsea very much needed cover for the Spanish international given that Conte clearly didn't fancy Michi Batshuayi and there weren't any other out-and-out strikers in the squad. But Morata and the Frenchman share plenty of similar characteristics: tall, powerful, technically good, strong in the air, don't mind playing with their back to goal but lacking pace.
He has six Premier League goals this season and all of them were from the bench (a Premier League record, as Opta tell us) but right now he's probably ahead of Morata in the pecking order so is likely to start this one, especially after opening the scoring in that weekend win over Southampton and putting in a good all-round performance.
He also enjoys playing Swansea away. His four visits to the Liberty Stadium have yielded two goals in addition to two assists (Opta again).
All reasons to think that the 9/2 on the Betfair Sportsbook on him being first goalscorer is a very fair price.
Swansea value for most corners
There's a value bet on the corners match bet market. Swansea have had more corners than their opponents in 69% of their home matches this season (no draws, curiously) while Chelsea have managed to 'out-corner' the opposition in 52% of their fixtures on the road this term. No draws for them, either on the corner count.
With those stats in mind you'd think that the odds would be pretty close to even money the pair on who will get the most corners here. But they're not. Swansea are way out at 9/4 and that has to be considered a good price. It's a good example of the odds-compilers thinking that match favourite will win this market as well rather than looking at the specific numbers. And it's a good opportunity for us.
Jonathan Moss takes charge here, a man averaging 3.5 yellows a game this season; he has shown three reds.
Swansea are a pretty clean side at home. In 18 games at home this season they have picked up more than two yellows on just the one occasion- against Bournemouth back in November. Chelsea actually have the tendency to pick up more cards on the road than Swansea at the Liberty. On four occasions they have picked up more cards away than their hosts so you might consider Chelsea on the most bookings market on the Exchange at anything above 2.50 when the market matures.
1pt Back Olivier Giroud to be first goalscorer @ 9/2 on Betfair Sportsbook
1pt Back Swansea on the Corners Match Bet @ 9/4 on Betfair Sportsbook