Man Utd v Arsenal: Mourinho's men can grind down Gunners

Man Utd v Arsenal
Sunday, 16:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

United have eyes on second spot

The gap to Man City is 16 points but United can still finish with 86 points if they win their final four games and that's five more than Leicester managed when they shocked the football world two seasons ago.

An FA Cup win and finishing 'best of the rest' isn't ideal but Mourinho will take it, especially as he can point to another recent trend.

One of the criticisms of his from last season was United's poor record against the other big teams but, since early February, United have gone into battle against Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Spurs and emerged victorious each time.

Add that to historical home dominance over Arsenal - United are unbeaten in 10 against Gunnerrs at Old Trafford, winning seven - and it's difficult to find a scenario where Mourinho doesn't take this final chance to win another tactical battle and put one over his old adversary.

Gunners pointless on the road

That headline works on two levels if you've followed the Gunners away from home in 2018. Just what is the point?

They've lost every single match, earning the unwanted label of the only team in the top four divisions of English football to still be without an away point in the calendar year.

With this game sandwiched between their two Europa League semi-finals against Atletico Madrid and Arsenal having a major task in the second leg after being held to a 1-1 draw at the Emirates on Thursday night, it's surely fair to presume they'll have one eye on the return.

That's sure to affect Wenger's selection policy although Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang's unavailability for Europe at least allows the Gabonese striker to be unleashed here.

United hot favourites

It's hard to think if Man Utd have traded shorter than 1.46 for a home game against Arsenal in the Wenger era but few would argue with the price.

United have won 13 of 17 in the Premier League at home, the four failures to take all three points coming against Man City and games where they perhaps lost some focus - Burnley, Southampton and West Brom.

The recent 2-1 home wins over Chelsea and Liverpool show that Mourinho is getting it rightagainst the Premier League's better sides and the bottom line is that United have won 15 of their last 20 games in all competitions - not bad for a team who cop plenty of flak.

Arsenal are 8.40 to cause an upset while The Draw is 5.00.

There's some value there for contrarians but Mourinho has never lost a home gameagainst Wenger and his teams have always been highly reliable when running out in front of their own fans.

Another possible thought is to get with United (-1) on the handicaps although the fact that their recent wins over Chelsea, Liverpool, Man City and Spurs have all been by a single goalis off-putting.

Stats support HT/FT punt

One alternative way in is to take heed of how his pair have performed in the first half of games.

Despite their woeful away record, Arsenal have actually only trailed at the break in four of their 16 away games. On 10 occasions they've gone in all square.

From the United point of view, they've led after 45 minutes in less than half of their 17 Premier League home matches. They've been level eight times.

I think United will win the game but they may have to grind Arsenal down slowly and hence get it done in the second half.

Therefore, play the Draw-Man Utd HT/FT double result at 4.30. Note that it would have landed in the recent 2-1 wins over Spurs and Chelsea and also in the 1-0 home victory over Tottenham in the Premier League.

Conflicting evidence for BTTS

West Brom may have breached them but United have conceded a league-low eight home goals this season and fantasy managers basically expect David de Gea clean sheets at Old Trafford.

'Yes' in the BTTS market is just 1.78 so there's scope to go with 'No' at 2.04.

The counter-argument is that despite losing lots of games on the road, Arsenal tend to at least score.

If that's the case and you expect a Man Utd win, there's good grounds to back Man Utd win and both teams to score at 15/8 (Sportsbook) or Over 2.5 goals at just 1.62.

However, based on recent trends I think there's a spot of value in backing Man Utd to win 2-0 at 8.20.

That's been the scoreline in three of United's last six games and they've actually won 2-0 no less than 10 times this season. It makes sense. This is Klopp not Mourinho. Getting over 7/1 makes it well worth it.

Ref watch

The ill-will seems at an all-time low ahead of this one with nothing particularly riding on the game and Mourinho saying nice things about the soon-to-depart Wenger.

Will that translate to the action on the pitch? It could make it less feisty from the start so hopefully that helps our punt on the game being level after 45 before Mourinho lays into his team at half-time.

The man in charge, appropriately enough perhaps, is Kevin Friend.

He's taken charge of 30 matches this season and lived up to his name by showing just 60 yellows and a single red. You won't find a ref in the top-flight who books less players per game.

Opta stat

This will be the 19th meeting between Jose Mourinho and Arsene Wenger in all competitions - Mourinho didn't lose any of the first 13 (W6 D7) but has lost two of the last five (W2 D1). However, he's never lost at home against Wenger in seven matches (W4 D3).

RECOMMENDED BETS

1pt Draw/Man Utd HT/FT at 4.30

1pt Man Utd to win 2-0 at 8.20