AFL Preview Round 9: Swans v Dockers

Sydney v Fremantle
Sat 7:25pm at SCG

Saturday night footy heads to Sydney for Round 9, with the Swans hosting the Dockers in what is expected to be an arm-wrestle of a game. Both sides have seen wildly fluctuating results at home and away- with the Dockers averaging 48 more points a game at home than away (and securing 4 wins) and the Swans managing just one win at home in four matches. Many have forecast this match (despite perfect conditions) as being a very low scoring encounter, but either way John Longmire will just be insistent on his side playing with the Bloods spirit, and returning the SCG to the fortress it once was.

Form

Sydney (WLWLW) – Sydney’s currently formline tells you all you need to know about how their season is tracking so far- and oddly those L’s in between the wins have both been at home- unheard of in recent times. The mysterious continued absence of Buddy Franklin has no doubt hurt the club, but some smaller types like Hayward, Ronke and Parker are really stepping up in the forward 50 and providing some very difficult match-ups.

Fremantle (LWLLW) – The 2018 season of swings (away) and roundabouts (at home) continues for the Dockers following their gritty 30 point win over the Saints at Optus Stadium last round. Nat Fyfe secured his fifth 3-vote game for the year, Connor Blakely and Lachie Neale continue to accumulate possessions at will while Aaron Sandilands is winding back the clock as he ages like a bottle of Penfolds Grange. 

Stats That Matter– The Dockers are 6-2 ATS this season
– Sydney are 1-3 ATS at home in 2018
– Fremantle are 0-4 on the Over/Under away from home 
– Josh Kennedy is averaging 36 disposals per game in his last 3 against Freo
– The Swans have won their last 5 games against Freo in Sydney
– Nat Fyfe averages 113 Fantasy points a game against the Swans
– Freo has won just 3 of their last 13 interstate games

Betting Data

2018 Line: Sydney- 4-4; Fremantle- 6-2

2018 Over-Under: Sydney- 3-5; Fremantle- 1-7

What To Expect

The Wolf is expecting a dour contest with not many points- but confident in the Swans to grind it out and get the job done. They have been very hard to get a read on this season, but without Franklin, Reid and Hannebery we have got a better window into the side, and how their depth is situated- and it is certainly not dire. Would give Freo a shot at home, but can’t see them scoring enough points to trouble the Swans in Sydney.

How It’s Shaping UpSydney by 17

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Wire to Wire- SYDNEY ($1.80)
Value Bet: Jake Lloyd 35+ Disposals ($6.50)
Player Prop: Nat Fyfe 120+ Fantasy Points ($2.60)
First Goalscorer: Luke Parker