Manly Sea Eagles v Brisbane Broncos Saturday, May 12, 7:35pm (AEST) Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The Sea Eagles have once again taken their home game to Suncorp Stadium, playing right into the hands of the Broncos. The Sea Eagles were very gallant in last week’s loss to the Roosters, while the Broncos won a controversial clash against the Bulldogs. The Sea Eagles have named the same 17, which is no surprise due to their well-documented injury crisis. Jack Bird moves back to the centres, while Kodi Nikorima is back in the Broncos No.7 jersey.
FormManly have lost five straight and are down to 14th on the ladder. They were vastly improved in a 22-20 loss to the Roosters on Sunday but are conceding an NRL worst 29.1ppg over the last seven rounds. The Sea Eagles rank seventh in scoring this year. Brisbane sit just outside the Top 8 with a win-loss record of 5-4. The Broncos have won three of their last four and have scored 20-plus in all four but have conceded 15-plus in six straight. Brisbane rank eighth in scoring and 11th in defence.
Key MatchupJake Trbojevic v Tevita Pangai Jr: It’s been a frustrating time for Jake Trbojevic, but he continues to give his all week in and week out. He was very strong against the Roosters, making 33 tackles and two line-breaks. Tevita Pangai Jr is very much in the mould of Jason Taumalolo and has looked very impressive since making the move to lock. He can offload and break tackles at will, and looks a star of the future. Big battle this one!
Stats That Matter– Manly are 3-6 ATS with a 5-4 over record while Brisbane are 3-6 ATS with a 6-3 over record with four straight overs. – Brisbane have won the last two and four of the last six against Manly with the Broncos having won four straight at Suncorp, all by double digits. – The last four matches have all topped 36 points. – The over is 29-17 (14-4 in their last 18) in Brisbane games at Suncorp since 2015 with a 25-21 ATS record though they have covered just 1 of their last 7 at the venue. – Manly have failed to cover the last three at Suncorp. – Brisbane have failed to cover any of their last five as a favourite at Suncorp while the over is 23-17 in those games dating back to 2015. – The over is 19-11 when Brisbane are favoured at Suncorp off scoring 20 or more. – The over is 6-3 while the Broncos are 3-6 ATS as a favourite at Suncorp after conceding 20. – Manly are 20-28 ATS in the last four seasons away from Brookvale and ended a 12-game non-cover streak against the Roosters last Sunday. – The over is 12-6 in Manly’s last 18 away from Brookvale. – The Sea Eagles have gone over in 10 of their last 15 interstate games.
Final ThoughtsAll of the statistics point to a high-scoring affair, making the overs the best play. The Sea Eagles could come out deflated here after throwing everything but the kitchen sink at the Roosters last week, and still coming up empty-handed. Broncos to cover and Over 41.5 for the value play.
How It’s Shaping UpBrisbane by 14
Recommended BetsBest: Over 41.5 ($1.91) Value: Brisbane -4.5 & Over 41.5 ($3.40) First Tryscorer: Tevita Pangai Jr ($26)