Friday, May 18, 7:55pm (AEST)
Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
The Broncos will be disappointed by their 38-24 loss on home soil at the hands of the Sea Eagles last week, and face an even tougher test this week when the Roosters travel to Suncorp Stadium. The Roosters are coming off an impressive 32-0 shutout of the Warriors and will fancy their chances against the injury-depleted Broncos. Jack Bird, Alex Glenn and Payne Haas join the likes of Josh McGuire, Jordan Kahu and Matt Gillett in the ever-growing Broncos casualty ward.
FormBrisbane have fallen to ninth on the ladder following their 38-24 loss to Manly at Suncorp, their third loss from five games at the ground this year. The Broncos rank ninth in attack while they rank 13th in defence. Brisbane have conceded 28ppg in their last four. The Sydney Roosters are sixth on the ladder with a 6-4 record. The Roosters have won their last two including a 32-0 road win over the Warriors. The Roosters have the best defence in the NRL while they rank eighth in scoring. The Roosters have kept opponents to 12 points or fewer on six occasions including two shutouts in their last four.
Key MatchupAndrew McCullough v Jake Friend: It would have been a lock that Jake Friend would take over the reins as the Queensland hooker once Cameron Smith announced his retirement from representative football, however poor club form has seen Friend drop down the pecking order, with the Maroons potentially leaning towards Andrew McCullough for Origin 1. The hooker that wins this duel on Friday could go a long way to cementing the No.9 jersey in the Origin opener.
Stats That Matter– Brisbane are 3-7 ATS with a 7-3 over record and have gone over in five straight while the Sydney Roosters are 5-5 ATS with a 7-3 under number with four straight unders.
– The Roosters have won the last two and six of the last 10 against the Broncos.
– The Broncos have won four straight against the Roosters at Suncorp.
– Four of the last six matches have topped 38 points.
– Brisbane have covered just 1 of their last 8 at Suncorp while the over is 30-17 since 2015.
– Brisbane are 3-3 ATS with a 6-0 over record when an underdog at the ground.
– The Broncos are 4-9 ATS with a 10-3 over record at Suncorp after conceding 20 or more while they over is 19-10 at Suncorp after they’ve scored 20 or more.
– The Roosters have covered 6 of their last 9 interstate matches but are just 2-6 ATS as an interstate favourite since 2015.
– The Roosters have covered 5 of their last 6 away from Allianz Stadium but are 10-14 ATS as a favourite away from the ground since 2015.
– The Roosters are 2-8 ATS with a 7-3 over record away from home after a win of 13 or more.
– The Roosters have won the last two and six of the last 10 against the Broncos.
– The Broncos have won four straight against the Roosters at Suncorp.
– Four of the last six matches have topped 38 points.
– Brisbane have covered just 1 of their last 8 at Suncorp while the over is 30-17 since 2015.
– Brisbane are 3-3 ATS with a 6-0 over record when an underdog at the ground.
– The Broncos are 4-9 ATS with a 10-3 over record at Suncorp after conceding 20 or more while they over is 19-10 at Suncorp after they’ve scored 20 or more.
– The Roosters have covered 6 of their last 9 interstate matches but are just 2-6 ATS as an interstate favourite since 2015.
– The Roosters have covered 5 of their last 6 away from Allianz Stadium but are 10-14 ATS as a favourite away from the ground since 2015.
– The Roosters are 2-8 ATS with a 7-3 over record away from home after a win of 13 or more.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is leaning towards a high-scoring affair here if the Sea Eagles and Broncos match at Suncorp Stadium was anything to go by. The Broncos are 10-3 over at Suncorp after conceding 20 or more, while four of the last six matches between the Broncos and Roosters have topped 38 points. Overs as the best bet and the Roosters 1-12 for the value bet.
How It’s Shaping UpSydney by 4
Recommended BetsBest: Over 39.5 ($1.91)
Value: Sydney 1-12 ($3)
First Tryscorer: Ryan Matterson ($19)
Value: Sydney 1-12 ($3)
First Tryscorer: Ryan Matterson ($19)
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