Parramatta Eels v New Zealand Warriors Friday, May 18, 6pm (AEST) ANZ Stadium, Sydney
The Warriors hopes have taken a hit with the unavailability of Shaun Johnson, while they’ll be still fuming after the Roosters shut them out 32-0 in Auckland last week. The Eels had ample opportunities to put the Bulldogs away last week, but ultimately couldn’t get the job done. It’s been a frustrating year for the 2-8 Eels who find themselves at the bottom of the NRL ladder, but face a must-win match here if they’re any chance of an unlikely finals berth.
FormParramatta are last on the ladder with a 2-8 record. They have the worst attack while they rank 12th in defence. The Eels have conceded 20-plus in each of their last three. New Zealand are down to third on the ladder following their loss to the Roosters. The Warriors have a 7-3 record with the seventh best attack and eighth ranked defence. New Zealand have conceded 27-plus in three of their last five.
Key MatchupClint Gutherson v Roger Tuivasa-Sheck: It was a mixed bag for Clint Gutherson in the loss to the Bulldogs, with a try and try assist, but it was an air swing that led to an Adam Elliott try which left a big blemish on his game. ‘King Gutho’ wears his heart on his sleeve and will be out to make amends against the Warriors. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck has been one of the Warriors most consistent players this season, but will have to take on a greater role in attack if Mason Lino can’t prove his fitness.
Stats That Matter– Parramatta are 3-7 ATS with a 5-5 total record while New Zealand are 7-3 ATS with a 7-3 under record. – The Eels have won two of the last three against the Warriors, including the only clash played at ANZ. – Seven of the last nine clashes between the teams have topped 45 points. – The Eels are 16-14 ATS with a 20-10 under record at ANZ since 2015, including a 14-6 under record at night and an 8-4 ATS/7-5 under as an underdog. – Parramatta are 9-4 under at ANZ off a loss. – The Eels have covered just 1 of their last 8 off a loss while they have gone under in 11 of their last 13 after conceding 20 or more. – Parramatta are 8-13 ATS after being held to 12 or fewer. – Interstate favourites off a loss of 20-plus are 6-1 ATS since 2015. – The Warriors are 18-25 ATS away from Mt Smart since 2015 while they have covered just 1 of their last 6 as a favourite. – The Warriors haven’t won at ANZ since 2011, losing their last four at the ground. – New Zealand have covered just 8 of their last 24 off a loss of 13 or more. – The under is 26-14 when a road team is coming off a loss of 30 or more.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is backing the Eels on the back of Shaun Johnson being ruled out. The Eels have won two of their last three matches against the Warriors, while ANZ Stadium hasn’t been a happy hunting ground for the Warriors. New Zealand haven’t won at ANZ since 2011, losing their last four at the ground. Eels in a close one here.
How It’s Shaping UpParramatta by 4
Recommended BetsBest: Parramatta +2.5 ($1.91) Value: Parramatta & Under 39.5 ($4) First Tryscorer: Bevan French