AFL Preview Round 11: Magpies v Dockers

Collingwood v Fremantle
Sun 3:20pm at MCG

 Sunday afternoon footy at the ‘G this weekend sees the Pies attempt to consolidate their spot in the Top 8 when they take on the 13th placed Dockers. Fremantle have been okay at stage this year but are a completely different team away from home- and the last time they visited Melbourne (Round 7) they completely disintegrated to lose by 77 points. The loss of Sandilands is a big blow to this developing side, and the fact they go up against perhaps the form ruckman of the comp only compounds the issue. Can the Magpies roll out a clinical performance in a game they are expected to win comfortably?

Form

Collingwood (LWLWW) – After a disappointing, and error-riddled display in the 28 point loss to Geelong 3 weeks ago, the Pies have got back on track with clinical performances over the Saints and Bulldogs. Brodie Grundy and his merry band of midfielders have been consistent, classy and tough- and they way they didn’t panic after the Doggies got off to a flyer was impressive. With Aaron Sandilands missing for this encounter, Grundy, who is clearly in All-Australian contention,  could have an absolutely field day. 

Fremantle (LLWLL) – If the Dockers could play even half as well away as they do at home, they would be a pretty reasonable side. Sadly for Ross Lyon and Freo fans, they do not, and they are not a reasonable side away at all. Nat Fyfe has continued to dominate and lead by example, and Michael Walters has taken his game to another level, but there just isn’t enough scoring options for Fremantle to worry the top sides. It would be handy if they had a Fyfe at full-forward and a Fyfe roving Sandilands. 

Stats That Matter– Fremantle hasn’t beaten Collingwood at the ‘G since 2006
– The Pies have had 100+ points in 5 of their last 8 matches
– Adam Treloar is averaging 34 disposals per game in his past 3 against the Dockers
– Freo are 1-4 Over/Under away from home in 2018
– Collingwood have won the past 2 meetings with an average winning margin of 34 points
– Nat Fyfe is averaging 112 Fantasy Points per game this season
– The Pies have won just 1 from 4 home games

Betting Data

2018 Line: Collingwood- 6-4; Fremantle- 6-4
2018 Over-Under: Collingwood- 4-6; Fremantle- 2-8

What To Expect

After a tough slog in the wet last Sunday, the Wolf is expecting the Dockers to be comfortably overpowered by the Pies in this game. Brodie Grundy, Adam Treloar and Steele Sidebottom could very well run riot on the wide expanses of the ‘G, and with the line expected to drift even further, the Wolf is happy to accept a -30.5 start and sit back and watch the money roll in.

How It’s Shaping UpCollingwood by 38

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Collingwood -30.5 ($1.91)
Value Bet: Tom Phillips 35+ Disposals ($5.50)
Player Prop: Brodie Grundy 130+ Fantasy Points ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Daniel Wells