AFL Preview Round 11: Suns v Cats

Gold Coast v Geelong
Sat 4:35pm at Metricon Stadium

 Footy heads to Metricon Stadium for the first time in 2018, with the Suns finally playing a game on their home deck against their former skipper Gary Ablett and his Geelong teammates. Tom Lynch will be making his return for the Suns, and will be pleased to know that Harry Taylor won’t be by his side- the out of contract star is expected to have to deal with Mark Blicavs instead and will fortunately get the assistance of fellow tall, Sam Day, who returns from suspension. On the flip side, all eyes will be on Gary Ablett on his return to the Sunshine State, but for Chris Scott all he will be thinking about is what to do with the lack of key positions players at both ends of the ground. Is a return to Metricon what the Suns need to get their season kick-started again?

Form

Gold Coast (WLLLL) – They started off the year in reasonable fashion, but have since slipped to 4 losses in a row, with 3 of those being 40+ margins. Tom Lynch has been absent for much of that time, and aside from his 8 goal game had not been in particularly good form anyway. Their fade outs late in games (the Suns have won just one fourth quarter for the year) have been alarming, but with a young side that is tasked with a pressure-based game style it isn’t entirely surprising. 

Geelong (LWWLW) – It may not have been pretty, but the Cats did come away with the four points against Carlton last round. In what was one of the ugliest game of the year despite the reasonable conditions, Geelong could only manage to score 73 points against a side that has won just one game for the year and are conceding 103 points per game on average. The horror leg break to Esava Ratugolea is a blow given the thin tall timber stocks and the continued absence of the unlucky Daniel Menzel, and the situation is compounded by Tom Hawkins having his worst return since 2013. You’d imagine Patrick Dangerfield will be spending a little more time forward. 

Stats That Matter– The Suns have won just one of their last 5 games at Metricon Stadium
– Geelong are on a run of 8 straight matches going Unders
– Joel Selwood averages 29 disposals and a goal per game against Gold Coast
– Gold Coast have won just one 4th quarter this year (with a percentage of 45%)
– Patrick Dangerfield averages 114 Fantasy Points per game against the Suns
– On average, the two sides combined are scoring just 61 points per game in the last 5 matches
– Aaron Hall had 32 touches, 8 tackles and 156 Fantasy Points in their last meeting

Betting Data

2018 Line: Gold Coast- 5-4; Geelong- 5-5
2018 Over-Under: Gold Coast- 2-7; Geelong- 2-8

What To Expect

The Wolf has a little inkling the Suns can get the chocolates here, and is keen to accept the generous handicap against a Geelong side that has struggled to score of late and is missing a number of forward line personnel. A return to Metricon could be just what this young side needs, and they should be refreshed and ready to provide immense pressure to a Cats side that can be very up and down. Here’s hoping the Suns boys can send the Little Master home with his tail between his legs.

How It’s Shaping UpGold Coast by 7

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Gold Coast +21.5 ($1.91)
Value Bet: Gold Coast 1-39 ($4.25)
Player Prop: Gary Ablett 35+ Disposals ($2.25)
First Goalscorer: Jack Martin