AFL Preview Round 11: Hawks v Power

Hawthorn v Port Adelaide
Sat 2:10pm at University Of Tasmania Stadium

 Footy heads back down to Launceston on Saturday afternoon with the Hawks taking on the Power at the old York Park in what will be typically welcoming Tassie weather. The Power are coming off the bye following their trip to China, and will be desperate to continue the momentum they had built up before the break and secure their third win in a row. The Hawks, on the other hand, find themselves in a bit of a slump, after disappointing losses to Brisbane, West Coast and Sydney and are showing worrying signs in their push to return to the Top 8. Which side can return to the mainland with the 4 points and continue to push their finals credentials? Pack your beanies and gloves kids, not even an electric Power performance will warm up your fingers!

Form

Hawthorn (WWLLL) – They were super impressive with the way they dealt with Collingwood and Melbourne earlier in the year, but apart from that the Hawks have failed to fire- embarrassingly highlighted by their 56 point loss to Brisbane. They were competitive in patches against the Eagles last round, but were hurt by the way they consistently butchered the ball; leading to continual turnovers in the most crucial period of the game. Alistair Clarkson will be pleased his side managed to keep the high-scoring Eagles to just 75 points, but has every right to be concerned with the way the forward line still looks disjointed and fails to take advantage of the opportunities presented.

Port Adelaide (LWLWW) – It was only 3 rounds ago when Port failed to fire a shot against the Eagles in Perth, but since then they have managed to rediscover some of their best footy in wins over the Crows and Gold Coast. The return of Paddy Ryder has been a huge boost, and the way Tom Rockliff has now worked himself into form has given the Port midfield another dimension, with his clearance work allowing the dangerous Robbie Gray to spend more time up forward. Charlie Dixon’s lack of goals (6.13 from 9 games) continues to be a concern, but the big man is still providing a contest up forward, putting on good forward-half pressure and providing a good chop-out in the ruck, so Ken Hinkley will be hopeful he can will himself into form. 

Stats That Matter– Port has won 4 of the last 6 match-ups
– Tom Rockliff averages 27 disposals, 7.6 tackles and 112 Fantasy Points per game against Hawthorn
– Hawthorn are 23-1-1 in their last 25 at Launceston 
– The Power are 1-4 Over/Under in away fixtures this season
– Tom Mitchell has had 40+ disposals in 5 of his 10 games
– Port are 2-4 ATS when favourite this year
– Brad Ebert is averaging 8.2 tackles per game in 2018

Betting Data

2018 Line: Hawthorn- 5-5; Port Adelaide- 4-5
2018 Over-Under: Hawthorn- 4-6; Port Adelaide- 3-6

What To Expect

The Wolf is expecting the Power to come back refreshed and revitalised and ready to put forward their finals credentials. In their favour is the fact the Hawks are coming off a six day back-up and a tough game against the ladder leaders where they were run ragged. Hawthorn may have a good record in Launceston but the $1.87 about the Power is too good to refuse. They have been a hard team to trust over the past few years but Wolfie is trusting them to get the job done this week after letting their hair down in Honkers.

How It’s Shaping UpPort by 18

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Port Adelaide WIN ($1.87)
Value Bet: Port Adelaide -15.5 and UNDER 179.5 ($3.80)
Player Prop: Isaac Smith 25+ Disposals ($2.15)
First Goalscorer: Chad Wingard