Wests Tigers v Canterbury BulldogsSunday, May 27, 4:00pm ANZ Stadium, Sydney
Round 12 concludes with an interesting affair between two defence-first teams that have struggled for points all year. The Tigers remain in the Top 8 but a loss to lowly Canterbury will almost certainly see the early season pacemaker fall out at the halfway mark of the season.
Recent Form The Wests Tigers sit eighth on the ladder with a 6-5 record, despite losing four of their last five. The Tigers rank third defensively but are a lowly 14th in scoring. The Tigers have been kept to four points or fewer in two of their last three. Canterbury are 14th on the ladder with a 3-8 record. The Bulldogs are 15th in scoring but have the best defensive record of any team outside the top eight. Canterbury’s only win in their last five came against last-placed Parramatta. Them Bulldogs have surpassed 20 points just once this year.
Key MatchupRussell Packer v Aaron Woods. The Tigers were devastated when local boy Aaron Woods defected to Canterbury but now it is the Tigers who are laughing with Woods going awful for the Bulldogs. Packer has really stepped into a leadership role at the Tigers and the club really needs him to take that enforcing role he is renowned for. The Bulldogs pack is tough but so is the Tigers and these two will determine who wins the arm wrestle.
Stats That Matter – Wests Tigers are 7-4 ATS with a 7-4 under record, going under in three straight. – Canterbury are 5-6 ATS with a 7-4 under number, covering their last three. – Canterbury have won 9 of the last 12 against the Wests Tigers with the Tigers not winning back-to-back games since 2005. – High scoring matches have been common with nine of the last 10 topping 40 points. – The Tigers are 16-9 ATS at ANZ since 2015 while Canterbury are 23-21 ATS. – In day games at ANZ, the Bulldogs are 11-5 ATS with a 9-7 over record while the Tigers are 7-6 ATS with a 10-3 under record. – Canterbury are 12-7 ATS with a 12-7 under record as an underdog at ANZ. – The Tigers are 5-1 ATS with a 5-1 over record at ANZ after scoring 12 or fewer while they are 7-3 ATS at the ground off a 10 point or larger loss. – Canterbury are 16-8 ATS at ANZ off a loss while they are 12-5 ATS at ANZ after scoring 22 or more points. – Favourites who scored 6 or fewer are 22-33 ATS since 2014.
Final Thoughts Stylistically this game shapes as a grind with both teams struggling for points. Canterbury are arguably going better than the Tigers at present and look the value bet here. The Bulldogs are good at ANZ in the day and as an underdog and have a strong recent record against Ivan Clear’s team. Canterbury are the bet here.
How It’s ShapingCanterbury by 4
Best: Canterbury +3.5 ($1.91) Value: Canterbury WIN ($2.25) First Tryscorer: Jeremy Marshall-King ($21.00)