AFL Preview Round 12: Demons v Magpies

Melbourne v Collingwood
Mon 3:20pm at MCG

Round 12 concludes on Monday afternoon with the traditional Queen’s Birthday fixture at the ‘G between the Demons and Magpies. Both sides have been impressive so far in 2018 and will be hoping for a return to September- something neither side has achieved since 2013 (and the for the poor Dees it has been 12 years). With a massive crowd expected, which side will handle the pressure best and continue their march to finals?

Form

Melbourne (WWWWW) – The Demons have won 21 of their last 22 quarters. Let that sink in! You should definitely keep your eye on the boys in the red and the blue- they are in rare form. Jesse Hogan and Tom McDonald have combined for 29 goals in the past four games while Angus Brayshaw is in career-best form. The #3 pick from the 2014 Draft has accumulated 76 disposals, 14 inside 50’s, 22 marks and 4 goals over the past fortnight and his work-rate is simply outstanding. With his career to date blighted by concussions, it is great to see the youngster at his best. 

Collingwood (WLWWW) – The way with which the Pies have dispatched the Bulldogs and the Dockers over the past 2 rounds has been very impressive. The midfield has a brilliant balance of grunt, speed and spread, while Jordan de Goey and Will Hoskin-Elliott have given the side a different avenue to goal that was sorely lacking in 2017. 

Stats That Matter– Melbourne covered the spread in 6 straight games
– The Dees have not won 7 games in a row since 2000
– Adam Treloar is averaging 32 disposals and 112 Fantasy Points per game this season
– Melbourne are averaging 107 points per game in 2018
– Bernie Vince averages 29.5 disposals per game against Collingwood as a Demon
– The Demons have won 4 of the past 5 meetings
– Nathan Jones averages 107 Fantasy Points per game against Collingwood

Betting Data

2018 Line: Melbourne- 8-3; Collingwood- 7-4

2018 Over-Under: Melbourne- 6-5; Collingwood- 5-6

What To Expect

The Wolf is very excited for this one- it’s probably the biggest game of the year to date. It’s rare over the past few years to have a lot at stake in this Queen’s Birthday fixture, but it shapes as a critical clash for both clubs with Melbourne looking to secure a spot in the Top 4 and the Pies desperately trying to shore up a spot in the 8. The market has rightly installed Collingwood as favourites, but the Wolf thinks this will be a tight clash that could go either way.

How It’s Shaping UpMelbourne by 6

Pump It Up Price Special: Brayshaw, Oliver & Jones Combine for 100+ Disposals ($6.50)

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Triple Margin 15.5- Any Other Result ($2.25)
Value Bet: Treloar 35+ Disposals/Brayshaw 35+ Disposals ($9.26)
Player Prop: Steele Sidebottom 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.85)
First Goalscorer: Christian Petracca
Neale Daniher Medal: Nathan Jones ($15.00)