Canterbury Bulldogs v St George Illawarra Dragons Monday, June 11, 4pm ANZ Stadium, Sydney
The Bulldogs have a tremendous record against the Dragons, but it’s hard to see them having enough points to go with the Dragons, who are the best attacking side in the NRL. Kieran Foran is out for the Bulldogs, with Jeremy Marshall-King moving to five-eighth and Michael Lichaa recalled to play hooker. David Klemmer has been named to back up after Origin. The Dragons have named all of their Origin stars (Ben Hunt, Tyson Frizell, Jack De Belin and Paul Vaughan) to back up as well, and have the luxury once again of naming an unchanged team.
Recent FormCanterbury’s 3-9 record has consigned them to second last on the ladder. The Bulldogs have the ninth best defence but rank a lowly 15th in scoring. The Bulldogs have lost five of their last six. Canterbury have scored more than 20 just once this year. St George Illawarra have won nine of 12 games and sit second on the ladder. They are the top scoring team while they rank fifth defensively. The Saints are 3-0 against teams outside the Top 8.
Stats That Matter– Canterbury are 5-7 ATS with an 8-4 under record. – St George Illawarra are 7-5 ATS with an 8-4 under record. – The Bulldogs have won six straight and 11 of their last 12 against the Dragons. – Canterbury have won 13 of their last 18 against the Saints at ANZ. – Three of the last five matches have failed to break 23 points. – Canterbury are 23-22 ATS with a 24-21 under record at ANZ while St George are 5-10 ATS with a 9-6 under record. – The Bulldogs are 12-8 ATS with a 13-7 under record as an underdog at ANZ, including a perfect 8-0 ATS record getting a start of six or more. – Canterbury are 8-3 ATS at ANZ as an underdog after being held to 14 or fewer. – Canterbury are 12-6 ATS at ANZ in day games. – The under is 38-17 when the Dragons play away from their two suburban home grounds. – As a favourite away from their suburban home grounds, the Saints are 6-14 ATS with a 13-7 under record. – When favoured by 4.5 or more on the road, the Saints are 3-8 ATS. – The Saints are 14-2 under on the road after conceding 24 or more.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf can see the Bulldogs struggling to score many points against the Dragons despite their impressive record against the Red V. Dean Pay’s men rank 15th in scoring and will have to rely on the inexperienced halves pairing of Jeremy Marshall-King and Matt Frawley to ignite the attack in Foran’s absence. Unders looks a great play, with the Dragons doing most of the scoring.
How It Shapes UpSt George Illawarra by 6
Recommended Bets Best: Under 38.5 ($1.91) Value: Canterbury 0-10 points/St George Illawarra 11-20 points ($10) First Try: Euan Aitken