AFL Preview Round 12: Dockers v Crows

Fremantle v Adelaide
Sun 4:40pm at Optus Stadium

 It’s a typical Sunday afternoon Perth fixture, with a Nat Fyfe-less Fremantle taking on the Crows. Fremantle were not competitive whatsoever against the Magpies last round, and need a big turnaround to get the win in front of their home fans. Adelaide aren’t exactly flying either, with the Crows precariously placed in 9th after losing 3 of their last four games. Can the Crows rebound with a win or will Fremantle’s good record at Optus Stadium continue?

Form

Fremantle (LWLLL) – Simply put, Fremantle were embarrassing against the Pies last round. They were thoroughly out-worked and out-run by the Pies on the ‘G and as a result they allowed Collingwood to kick their highest score in 2 years. Nat Fyfe being suspended just compounded the problem and a lot rides on the shoulders of Michael Walters and Lachie Neale with their star teammate out. 

Adelaide (WLWLL) – They’ve had their injury worries, but nothing excuses losing a game by 91 points when you played in a Grand Final 8 months earlier. To then follow that up with a very disappointing 16 point loss at home to a side that hadn’t won in a month was disheartening. With even more injury concerns thrown their way, it won’t get any easier and the Crows are, inconceivably, in danger of not making the 8 at the end of the season.  

Stats That Matter– The Crows won by 100 points in their last meeting
– Freo average 35 more points per game at Home than they do Away
– Eddie Betts has kicked 15 goals in his last 4 games against Freo
– 4 of the last 5 Crows matches have gone Overs
– Matt Crouch is averaging 32 disposals per game in his last 5 matches
– Fremantle are 4-1 ATS at home

Betting Data

2018 Line: Fremantle- 6-5; Adelaide- 5-6

2018 Over-Under: Fremantle- 3-8; Adelaide- 5-6

What To Expect

The Wolf was leaning towards Fremantle earlier, but the loss of Nat Fyfe is crippling, especially given Sandilands is also in grave doubt. With some greasy conditions expected, Wolfie is happy to take the early total (won’t last long punters) and sit back and watch the rest of the game unfold. Wouldn’t be surprised to see either team win but if Adelaide are at their best, they should win.

How It’s Shaping UpAdelaide by 17

Pump It Up Price Special: Betts & Jenkins 3+ Goals Each ($5.50) 

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Total Points UNDER 171.5 ($1.88)
Value Bet: Adelaide by 10-19 ($6.50)
Player Prop: Matt Crouch 35 disposals ($2.30)
First Goalscorer: Rory Atkins