Melbourne Storm v Brisbane Broncos Sunday, June 10, 4:10pm AAMI Park, Melbourne
Late team news will be very crucial in this clash, with plenty of Origin representation across both sides. Storm fullback Billy Slater misses this clash with a hamstring injury which also ruled him out of State of Origin 1. Cameron Munster, Will Chambers, Felise Kaufusi and Josh Addo-Carr have all be named to back up after Origin. The Broncos have named James Roberts, Anthony Milford, Josh McGuire and Andrew McCullough to take their spots after Origin. Alex Glenn also makes his return from a knee injury.
Recent FormMelbourne are fifth on the ladder with a 7-5 record. They rank fourth in both scoring and defence. The Storm have won two of their last three, including a 7-6 road win over North Queensland prior to the bye. The Storm have been held to 11 points in their last two. Brisbane are eighth on the ladder with a 7-5 record. They rank 10th in scoring and 12th in defence. The Broncos have won their last two and four of their last five.
Stats That Matter– Melbourne are 5-7 ATS with a 6-6 total record, failing to cover their last four while going under in their last three. – Brisbane are 5-7 ATS with an 8-4 over record. – The over has hit in 5 of the last 6 Broncos games. – Melbourne have absolutely dominated Brisbane for well over a decade with four straight wins and 24 wins in their last 29 meetings with the Broncos. – The Storm won 34-20 when the teams met earlier this season. – Seven of the last 10 wins have been decided by double figure margins. – The Storm have won 6 of the 9 all-time played at AAMI. – Four of the last six matches have topped 42 points. – Melbourne are 23-20 ATS since 2015 at AAMI Park with covers in six of their last nine. – The under is 26-17 at the ground. – When favoured by 6 or more at the ground the Storm are 15-13 ATS, with a 16-12 under record. – The under is 17-7 when Melbourne are at home after conceding 14 or fewer. – Melbourne are 13-18 ATS with a 21-10 under record at home off a win. – The Storm are 4-0 ATS at home and 7-2 ATS overall off a break of 11 or more days. – Brisbane are 10-5 ATS off a break of 11-plus days since 2015. – Brisbane are 13-6 ATS as an underdog on the road while they have covered 4 of 6 getting a start of 6 or more. – The Broncos are 5-10 ATS after conceding 14 or fewer. – The Broncos have covered 10 of their last 14 after two straight covers.
Final ThoughtsIt’s very hard to get a gauge on this match until we know if all of the Origin players will back up. In saying that, the Broncos are starting to get their troops back as they attempt to cement their spot in the Top 8. The +7.5 start looks generous, especially against a Storm side down on troops, including Billy Slater, Curtis Scott and Dale Finucane. Brisbane are 13-6 ATS as an underdog on the road while they have covered 4 of 6 getting a start of 6 or more. That’s good enough for Wolfy.
How It Shapes UpMelbourne by 2
Recommended Bets Best: Brisbane +7.5 ($1.91) Value: Brisbane +7.5 & Over 39.5 ($3.40) First Try: Corey Oates