Serie A Betting: Back Inter to march on at the expense of Lazio

Derby of the South

Napoli v Roma
Sunday, 19:30
Live on Betfair Live Video and Eleven Sports 2

Roma may have picked up a 3-0 win in the Champions League against CSKA Moscow in midweek, but it wasn't a trouble-free night, and Eusebio Di Francesco's problems are mounting. Last Saturday's 2-0 home defeat against the eventual 10 men of SPAL was an awful result, and Roma go to Naples needing to avoid a heavy defeat.

I'm not sure that they're capable of it, as Napoli have been getting better by the week as they adapt to the Carlo Ancelotti way of doing things and they've got back into last season's habit of winning games with something to spare. They were brilliant against Paris St-Germain in midweek, and unfortunate not to win.

Roma have actually won their last two games at the San Paolo, but are in the middle of their worst start to a Serie A season in five years and look seriously short on confidence. Since Napoli lost here to Roma in March, they've won eight and drawn one here, and I'm happy to support them conceding a goal on the Asian Handicap.

Samp can surprise San Siro

Milan v Sampdoria
Sunday, 17:00
Live on Betfair Live Video and Eleven Sports 2

Milan were beaten at the last in the derby against Inter last Sunday night and I was surprised by how tentatively they approached the game. Milan's buccaneering style has been one of the features of this Serie A season so far, and yet they seemed somehow frozen and scared of losing, not at all the Rossoneri that we have come to enjoy watching this season.

I don't think that we'll see a similar kind of performance this weekend as they host Sampdoria, and the derby can be to a large extent ignored, and when you consider that Milan have scored at least twice in their last five home games, and that they've now conceded in their last 14 matches in Serie A, I think that there'll be goals at San Siro on Sunday.

Samp have been no pushovers away from home so far in this campaign, and they have taken seven points from their last three away games without conceding, but even though they'll provide a stern defensive test, I think that Milan's style of play will encourage Samp to be more forward thinking than they have been away from home so far.

Samp actually have a chance here, and I wouldn't be shy of backing them at 6.20 for the win, but Over 3.5 Goals is the bet for me.

Lazio struggle with leading lights

Lazio v Inter
Monday, 19:30
Live on Betfair Live Video and Eleven Sports 1

Inter's win against Milan in the derby was fully deserved and now, after losing against Barcelona in the Camp Nou, they head to Lazio looking to keep up the pressure on Juventus at the top of the Serie A table.

Inter and Napoli look like the two teams most capable of challenging the seven-time Champions, and while this looks like a tricky task for Inter on paper, I think that they're a big price to win at the Olimpico against Lazio on Monday night.

Lazio are fourth in the table, and have an impressive run of wins to their name, but on the three occasions that they've faced one of the Division's leading lights, they've been beaten. By Juventus, by Roma and by Napoli. That doesn't make them a bad team, but it does suggest that they're just a little short of top class, and I have no problem taking them on here. Lazio could also be exhausted after Thursday's crunch Europa League trip to Olympique Marseille with a thin squad at their disposal.

Inter have won three of their last four against Lazio, and have won on three of their last four visits to Lazio, and I expect them, after a reasonable rest, to be at their best here. They've won their last three away games, look very solid defensively, and with Lazio looking a little tired and turgid, for all that they've continued to win games against the division's lower lights, I'll take Inter to win this one.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Napoli -1 on Asian Handicap against Roma @ 3.10

Back Over 3.5 Goals in Milan v Sampdoria @ 3.00

Back Inter to beat Lazio @ 3.15