Atalanta v Sampdoria Sunday, 14:00 Live on Betfair Live Video
Sampdoria head for an out-of-form Atalanta side and I'm surprised to see them as big as5.60 to come away with a victory. That seems to be a price based on the Atalanta of the last couple of seasons rather than the team which has stumbled through this campaign so far.
Atalanta have had to chop and change this season, and they're the only side in Serie A without a single player who has started every League game, and that's maybe one of the main reasons for their failure to this point. Their key man, Papu Gomez, hasn't looked right either. Short of energy, certainly struggling with injury.
Samp have been solid defensively, conceding only four times this season, and they're a predictable team in terms of performance. Capable of the odd surprise, as in their demolition of Napoli, but rarely throwing in a poor display. I think that a solid Samp here could well be enough to cause an upset.
Samp have won three of their last four against Atalanta in Serie A, and with Gian Piero Gasperini's side winless in all competitions since the opening day of the season, we have to get with Marco Giampaolo's men on the Asian Handicap. They look an absolute steal at2.40 with a goal start.
More misery for Lazio
Lazio v Fiorentina Sunday, 14:00 Live on Betfair Live Video
Sometimes Serie A throws up one of those weekends that looks like a real dog: plenty of predictable fixtures, not too much edge, limited excitement. As the Premier League in England looks forward to what should be an electrifying Matchday, I'm afraid that in Italy we'll be standing still a little.
The fixture of the weekend by some distance takes place at the Stadio Olimpico, as a strong Fiorentina side hope to further ruin Simone Inzaghi's week. I was confident that Lazio could win against Roma last week, but they played poorly, and then capitulated against Eintracht Frankfurt in the Europa League on Thursday night.
Lazio must be tired, and I think that they could be set for more Olimpico disappointment. Fiorentina have the second-best defensive record in Serie A this season, having conceded only four times, and while their away record isn't great, their one point from nine has come from trips to Napoli, Inter and Sampdoria, so I suspect they'll improve on their travels.
Fiorentina are4.30 to win the game, but more temptingly, they're odds-against with a goal start on the Asian Handicap, and given that they lost 1-0 at Napoli and 2-1 at Inter, and given Lazio's woes this week, it's hard to see Inzaghi's team going one better than that, which gives us every chance of a relatively risk-free bet.
Lazio's attacking play is what has carried them to success in recent seasons, but Ciro Immobile hasn't scored against Fiorentina in seven attempts, and anyway, he can't keep carrying the forward line. Sergej Milinkovic-Savic needs to step up after his anodyne start to the season.
I like this Fiorentina side, and the presence of ex-Lazio Coach Stefano Pioli in their dug out adds to the spice of the fixture. The stand-out game of the weekend may just produce a small surprise, and we need to be on the right side of it.
Bologna shine in Sardinia
Cagliari v Bologna Saturday, 14:00 Live on Betfair Live Video
I've had to cast the net far and wide for a third tip this weekend, and will settle on a small interest in Bologna's trip to Sardinia. The two teams are clearly well matched, with Cagliari looking a little short at2.14 to beat Pippo Inzaghi's improving side.
Bologna had an awful start to the season, failing to score in their opening four games, but have looked good of late, beating both Roma and Udinese at home.
Goals may still be an issue, but they're full of confidence, and there's a sense too that Inzaghi is getting used to the job. And there's nothing to fear from a Cagliari team that haven't won at home this season.
Bologna have won only three points from their last 13 away games in Serie A, and that's a pretty stark stat, but given that the majority of those failures were under a tired Roberto Donadoni regime, I wouldn't read too much into them. I'd give Inzaghi's team a fair chance of a draw or better against a team that hasn't scored in their last three games, and yet is being treated here like a rock solid favourite.
Back Sampdoria +1 against Atalanta @ 2.40
Back Fiorentina +1 on the Asian Handicap against Lazio @ 2.04
Back Bologna +1 on Asian Handicap against Cagliari