Barcelona v Tottenham: Look out for late goals in Spain

Barcelona v Tottenham
Tuesday, 20:00
Live on BT Sport

Barca top but far from perfect

It's no surprise to see Barcelona at the top of the Primera League table and the Nou Camp is always a daunting place for any visiting side.

But 13th-placed Real Betis have gone there and won while Girona and Athletic Bilbao have emerged with draws. The Catalans aren't invincible.

True, they've beaten PSV and Inter 4-0 and 2-0 respectively at home, those two victories helping them to 13 points and six clear.

That more ruthless side in Europe actually plays out well for Spurs. Barca have already qualified and, as much as they'll want to stress there will be no easing up, it surely opens the door a little for the Premier League side.

That said, Barcelona go into the game on the back of a 4-0 win at Espanyol. The scorers? Lionel Messi (2) Luis Suarez and Ousmane Dembele.

Spurs still alive despite early wobbles

After taking just a single point from their opening three games - including a 4-2 home loss against Barcelona - Spurs face a clear, if hugely demanding, final hurdle if they're to make it to the last 16.

Tottenham have a superior record in head-to-heads against Inter so need to better the Serie A side's result on Tuesday night.

The problem is that Inter are at home to Group B whipping boys PSV so bettering their result will likely mean Tottenham gaining all three points.

If Premier League away form is anything to go on, Mauricio Pochettino's men are far from done.

Tottenham have played 10 away games in the top-flight due to the delay in moving home and won eight, taking their tally to 24 points with a 2-0 victory at Leicester on Saturday evening.

And they managed it despite letting Harry Kane warm the bench for 74 minutes.

Barca odds-against

It's not often Barcelona trade above even money at home but the market is respecting Tottenham here.

Barcelona are 2.16 to sign off with another three points, while Tottenham are [3.25) to get the victory that would see them go through even if Inter win 10-0.

The Draw, which could be enough for Spurs if PSV do them a favour, is 4.20.

Team news will obviously be important here but Messi rarely gets a night off and he'll have two weeks to recuperate over Christmas when the Catalans have a break from December 22 to January 6.

I want to try and get with Spurs but the value looks to have been squeezed out of themhere and perhaps too much emphasis put on Barcelona's supposed lack of incentive.

If you do pull the trigger on Tottenham, bare in mind that Barca have won 26 and drawn two of their last 28 Champions League home games.

Goal count could rise after the break

Firstly, it's just 1.55 for Over 2.5 goals so contrarians may be drawn therefore to Unders at 2.70.

Over 3.5 goals is 2.34 while Over 4.5 is 4.10. Both look possible.

However, the balance of the group suggests that Spurs may have to throw caution to the wind late if things aren't going their way. There's no point in leaving anything out there even if a goal or two behind.

That could lead to them being picked off again or, of course, a late cavalry charge could prove successful as it was against PSV. I know, I know, away to Barca is a different kettle of fish but the principle stands.

So, the bet I like to take that into account is Second Half to have Most Goals at 10/11 (Sportsbook).

It's landed in six of Tottenham's last nine games anyway but the context of this match would appear to tip the balance further towards late goals.

Alli appeals in scorer market

With goals expected, there's plenty to peruse here but let's start with some Lionel Messistats.

He's scored 22 goals in 29 games against English sides in the Champions League, including two in the 4-2 win at Wembley.

He's the leading scorer in this season's Champions League with six.

He scored two direct free-kicks in the 4-0 win over Espanyol on Saturday so god forbid that Spurs give away fouls near their box.

The Argentine is just 8/13 on the Sportsbook to net although there's alway scope to go higher and play 2 or more at 7/2 or even a hat-trick 1t 13/1.

Harry Kane is also odds-on which is slightly off-putting even though he has seven goals in seven Champions League away games. The England man is 5/6 to score anytime and 9/2 for 2 or more.

Luis Suarez is priced up the same as Kane but there are some alternatives to the very obvious names.

Son Heung-Min looks sharp and is 9/5 to wheel away in celebration but the one I like is Dele Alli at 13/5.

He capped an excellent display against Leicester with a fine header to make it 2-0 and also netted at home to Chelsea so has two in four in the Premier League.

Alli scored twice at home to Real Madrid last season and has been a regular scorer against the Big 6 Premier League sides in the last few campaigns.

He looks full of confidence again and can make his mark on one of the biggest stages in world football.

Looking at the Same Game Multi market, Alli to score in a Spurs win is just over 7/1 while it's nearly 16/1 he nets in a draw.

Opta stat

Lionel Messi has scored 22 goals against English clubs in the Champions League; 10 more than any other player (Cristiano Ronaldo, 12 goals).

RECOMMENDED BETS

1pt Dele Alli to score at 13/5 (Sportsbook)

2pts 2nd Half to have Most Goals at 10/11 (Sportsbook)