Blues to win but not without conceding

Chelsea 1.36 v Leicester 11.50; The Draw 5.50
Perhaps understandably Leicester haven't been in great form of late, but they need to be really careful that their poor run doesn't continue over Christmas, and then into the new year, because before they know it they'll be much closer to the relegation zone than they will the top half of the table.
The Foxes have won just one of their last eight league and cup games inside 90 minutes, that coming at home to a Watford side that were going through a difficult spell themselves at the beginning of the month, and they've slipped to 12th in the table following last week's defeat at Crystal Palace.
Odds of 1.36 about title-chasing Chelsea look about right, but I have a hunch that this game won't be as easy as the odds suggest for the home side.
Prior to last week's blank at Selhurst Park the Foxes had scored in all eight of their Premier League away games this term, including in both games against 'big six' opposition, so it's not too much of a stretch of the imagination to suggest that Claude Puel's men will get on the scoresheet at Stamford Bridge.
Although Chelsea recorded a fantastic 2-0 win over Manchester City in their last home league game it hasn't been all plain sailing for the Blues this term in front of their own fans.
In fact Maurizio Sarri's men conceded at Stamford Bridge in five of their first six Premier League home games this season, including to Cardiff and Crystal Palace, while they've also conceded in front of their own fans to Derby in the EFL Cup and to Bate Borisov in the Europa League.
When the Blues have conceded at home to the 'lesser lights' however, they have still managed to win games - 4-1 v Cardiff, 3-1 v both Palace and Borisov, 3-2 against Derby for example - so that's the bet I'm willing to chance on Saturday. Leicester can be very good on their day, and although I fully expect the home team to win I won't be in the least bit surprised if the Foxes get on the scoresheet.

Saints too good for goal-shy Terriers

Huddersfield 3.30 v Southampton 2.64; The Draw 3.20
It's undoubtedly too early to suggest that Southampton have turned the corner following the appointment of Ralph Hasenhüttl, but there were a lot of good signs in last week's victory over Arsenal and I fully expect the 'new manager bounce' to continue this weekend.
We'll get back to the Saints shortly, but I have to start with the main reason why we are backing an away win, and that's pure and simply the dire form of the hosts.
Huddersfield are firmly rooted in the relegation zone following just two victories from their opening 17 league games but unquestionably their biggest concern is the lack of goals they score.
David Wagner's men have scored just 10 league goals all season, and even that doesn't paint the true picture because seven of those goals came away from home. At the John Smith's Stadium the Terriers have scored just three times, failing to score a single goal in six of their nine home games.
Huddersfield's goals in front of their home fans came against Fulham (rock bottom), West Ham (out of form at the time) and Brighton (poor on the road), and their home form this season reads, played nine, won one, drew two, lost six.
As I've already said it's hard to say that Southampton are now world beaters but two aspects of last week's win over Arsenal really caught my eye. One was the amount of chances they created and goals they scored, the other was how happy the whole squad looked. It seems everyone is smiling again. And everyone is miraculously fit again!
Of course, the reality is that the Saints are just two points above Huddersfield after enduring a torrid start to the season themselves. But sometimes you just sense that better times are around the corner, and given Huddersfield's lack of goals and home form then backing an away win in this encounter makes plenty of appeal.

Fifth straight win beckons for Hammers

West Ham 2.44 v Watford 3.20; The Draw 3.60
I won't beat around the bush with my best bet of the day as I simply think West Ham are a cracking price at home to Watford on Saturday afternoon.
The Hammers are in fine form having won their last four Premier League games. The eyecatching aspect of those four victories was the amount of goals they scored against teams they were fully entitled - and expected in some cases - to beat. A lot of pressure can build when you see a run of fixtures where you know you can claim a lot of points.
So it's hats off to the Hammers for winning all four games and scoring 11 goals in the process, the last two of those victories without their star man Marko Arnautović so I'm not concerned that he'll be absent again for the visit of the Hornets.
Watford are having a decent season themselves and are level on points with Manuel Pellegrini's men in the top half of the table, but crucially, they aren't in such great formhaving won just one of their last seven in the league (a narrow win over Cardiff last week) while Javier Gracia's men have won just one of their last eight away games in all competitions.
This fixture resulted in a 2-0 win for West Ham last season at a time when the Hammers were out of form, so given their current mood I fully expect the home team to claim a fifth straight league win.
RECOMMENDED BETS
Back Chelsea Win & BTTS @ 21/10 v Leicester
Back Southampton @ 2.64 to beat Huddersfield
Back West Ham @ 2.44 to beat Watford (best bet)

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