Arsenal v Burnley: Home win might not be full of goals

Arsenal v Burnley 
Saturday December 22, 12:30
Live on Sky Sports Premier League

Slight loss of momentum

That defeat at Southampton will have really annoyed Unai Emery. They were full of momentum up to that point and wouldn't have expected to lose a game like that against a struggling side, though it often happens that the arrival of a new manager sparks a reaction in the players.

They also went out to rivals Spurs at home in the Carabao Cup this week, though that was far from being Enery's best XI out there.

One thing he manager might think about is playing Alexandre Lacazette and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang together. The Frenchman almost always seems to make a contribution when he's on. But in these days where the system is king, the former PSG boss is probably thinking that he Aubemayang loses something by playing out wide when he's partnered by Lacazette. That said, the former Dortmund goalscorer actually started in midweek so it may be that he starts from the bench here ahead of the busy festive period.

Transfer window can't come soon enough

Burnley put up a good fight away at Tottenham last week. But Sean Dyche knows those valiant efforts with nothing to show for them won't count much come the end of the season.

What's more worrying? The 33 goals conceded, second only to Fulham in this regard? Or the paltry 15 goals scored, with only three teams having scored less?

It's a good thing the January transfer window is coming because Dyche could certainly do with a few new faces. But who can he get when they're in this precarious position?

Opta stats don't make for good reading for Burnley fans

Arsenal are 1/4. Opta stats certainly suggest you don't necessarily want to be opposing the hosts. The Gunners haven't lost to Burnley in 10 matches, have beaten them at home in their last four attempts in the Premier League and far more interestingly, have won each of their last 27 games at home to sides who started the day in the relegation zone.

But Burnley can be hard to break down on their day as they showed at Wembley and the best move here could be a lay-to-back of Arsenal on the Exchange.

The smart way to get with Arsenal

Can Arsenal keep a clean sheet here? Well, the fact they've remarkably only managed one all season suggests probably not. But then again, they'll have few better opportunities to make it two than in a home game against a side who as we've seen already, averages less than a goal a game and has even more trouble scoring away from home: they've failed to score in seven of their last 10 on the road and in each of their last three.

So I think this could be a rare Arsenal clean sheet here, I don't think they'll batter Burnley after their midweek exertions and they may even have to wait a while before getting that breakthrough. Which all in all makes Arsenal to win and less than 3.5 goals in the game a good bet. Especially as it would also include a 2-1 win, which isn't completely out of the question.

Arsenal defenders at interesting prices

Arsenal's two main strikers are too short for my liking. Aubemayang just 3/10 and Lacazette 8/13. Henrikh Mkhitarian doesn't score enough goals to suggest he's an even money chance, either. Alex Iwobi has been starting quite a few games of late but just one league goal all season suggests he should be bigger than 13/8.

So it may be worth venturing further afield in terms of prices. Saed Kolasinac is yet to score this season but has been getting into some very advanced positions. It may not be too long before one of those thunderbolts eventually leads to a goal. I'd rather be on him at 7/1 than on one of the forwards at prohibitive prices.

Don't forget about Laurent Koscielny, either. He started against Southampton in what was his first match of the season, was rested in midweek so should play here and is generally good for two or three goals a season. He's 13/2.

Same-Game Multi Bet

A same-game multi-bet allows you to pick two or more selections from the same game and combine them. For example, Lacazette scoring first (10/3) in an Arsenal win (1/4) comes to odds of 4.75.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Arsenal to win and under 3.5 goals @ 11/10