Leicester v Manchester City: Favourites concede, favourites win

Leicester v Manchester City 
Tuesday December 18, 19:45

Foxes lacking something upfront

Leicester aren't going through a particularly good patch just now. They would have expected to have got at least a point at Selhurst Park at the weekend but did something very few teams have done at Palace's home this season...they lost the game.

Their defence looks good on paper, albeit not one who keep too many clean sheets, and their midfield is about par for the course by Premier League standards.

But it's in attack they look a little listless. You can't expect Jamie Vardy at 31 to carry on chasing every hopeful ball, turning something into nothing, scoring goals and just generally being a one-man-band in the Leicester attack forever. They have admittedly made a couple of signings in attack over the past three years but neither Shinji Okazaki or Kelechi Ihenacho have really made the sort of impact the Board would have hoped for.

Guardiola out to win this competition

And so they march on. Another midweek Champions League win, another Premier League win against a tricky opponent, another successful week for Pep Guardiola.

I think City will have done incredibly well to win two trophies this season, let alone the four some think they can still win, and right now this is the easiest one for them to secure. There are admittedly some strong teams left in the competition but we know that one of Arsenal or Spurs will have to go out at this stage and they'll be red-hot favourites over two legs, against whoever they have to play in the semis.

Sergio Aguero could easily start here after being out injured for the past four weeks and so might Kevin de Bruyne. In fact, this is just the sort of game that would be ideal for the brilliant Belgian to get some minutes in his legs.

Hosts have it all to do

Had this been at the Etihad Stadium, one could have forgiven Claude Puel for pretty much waving the white flag before a ball was kicked and just saving his troops for future battles they think they could win.

But on home soil they may just fancy this. Sitting in 12th they don't really need to be worrying about relegation for the time being so could field their strongest possible side and may think a change of competition is just what they need.

That's why I wouldn't jump on the 4/11 about City. Then again, these Opta stats make me think I'm not going to go against them either: Leicester haven't made the semis of is competition since 1999-2000 and certainly haven't enjoyed playing City in this competition, having been knocked out by them in each of the last four times they were up against them. It's 7/1 on the hosts bucking that trend and winning in 90 minutes.

Usual story regarding goals markets

As ever, it's a short price about over 2.5 goals (4/7) because the odds-compilers are always aware that City could go on and score three all by themselves.

But if it's the goals markets you want to play and think there will be some of them, you might be better off going with both teams to score at 4/5 which is a significantly bigger price than overs.

But we can do even better than that.

City can win again but they can also concede again

City have won four of their last five games in all competitions. The odd one out being that 2-0 defeat at Stamford Bridge last week.

So with that in mind, would you rather be backing City to win at 4/11 or City to win with both teams scoring at 9/5? Yeah, me too.

Vardy and Sterling decent bets to strike first

I'm not particularly keen on Sergio Aguero to open the scoring at just 11/4. It's hard to know how sharp he will be after such a long absence and he wasn't in particularly great scoring form even before that. Gabriel Jesus (10/3) probably won't even start.

If Leroy Sane starts, the 13/2 isn't a price to turn your nose up at given he got both in that midweek win over Hoffenheim.

Raheem Sterling at the slightly shorter price of 11/2 is definitely also worth considering as a player who could well be in the starting line-up after starting on the bench against Evertonand scoring shortly after coming on. That was his 12th of the season for club and country.

But if you're talking value, then it's probably Jamie Vardy himself at 8/1 who takes the biscuit. City can occasionally be a little slow out of the blocks as shown by the fact they went 1-0 down against Hoffenheim and that's too big a price for a proven goalscorer like him.

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Back Man City to win and both teams to score @ 9/5