It’s the women’s Australian Open Semi-Finals, with a major upset shaking up the tournament after Karolina Pliskova staged an epic comeback to defeat Serena Williams? Will she back up the next day when she takes on Naomi Osaka for a chance to reach the Australian Open Final?
Day 11 Tips
|Best Bet||Petra Kvitova (-4.5) @ $1.76|
|Circuit Bet||Pliskova v Osaka over 21.5 total games @ $1.78|
|Value Bet||Nadal win / Over 33.5 total games @ $2.40|
Petra Kvitova (-4.5) @ $1.76
Has had a huge 2019 so far. Won the Sydney International going into the Australian Open, and she’s yet to drop a set here so far. Even more impressive is that every set has only gone to 6 as well, and the 4.5 game line on offer against Danielle Collins has been cleared in every match she’s played this tournament. The way she dispatched Aussie Ash Barty in the Quarter Final gives me confidence that she won’t have any trouble against unseeded American Danielle Collins, who has had a huge tournament so far. The Czech to continue going about her business, once again clearing the 4.5 game handicap.
Pliskova v Osaka over 21.5 total games @ $1.78
Geez this one is tough! Were both really impressive in their Quarter Final wins, more so Pliskova coming from 5-1 down in the third set and saving four match points against the best player on the planet. As for Osaka, taking nothing away from her 6-4 6-1 Quarter Final win but her opponent Elina Svitolina did appear to be playing injured (plus notoriously underperforms in major Quarter Finals!) This one is going to be tight, and that’s why I’m taking the total games over. Both players have come back from a set down this tournament showing that they’re willing and capable of forcing a decider, plus there’s a big chance that there will be a set going to 7 somewhere if there is a straight sets win. I’ll take the games over 21.5, plus don’t mind the value for there to be over 2.5 sets at $2.32.
Nadal win / over 33.5 total games @ $2.40
Nadal hasn’t dropped a set this tournament, and has barely been threatened. His performance in the Quarter Final against Frances Tiafoe was the best anyone’s played in this Australian Open – his dismantling of Tomas Berdych wasn’t far behind. Cult figure Stefanos Tsitsipas has been outstanding so far, and his willingness to get to the net might work in his favour against the Spanish Bull. I cannot see Nadal losing this, but think it will go to 4 sets. Tsistipas has gone to four in every match he’s played so far, with 50% of sets he’s played this tournament going to 7. The 33.5 total games line can still be cleared if Rafa does win in 3 with two sets going to 7, but I do think the Greek is good enough to pinch one – but the way Rafa is playing it’s hard to imagine him losing this.