Burton v Man City: Jesus can add to tally

Burton v Man City
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Main Event

Burton backline still reeling

Since being on the wrong end of the biggest ever margin of victory in a semi-final of an English cup competition, how have Burton responded to that 9-0 walloping at The Etihad?

In short, not that great. Three days later they lost 3-2 at home to Gillingham after letting in a last-minute winner although they role reversed a little last time when scoring a late equaliser to draw 2-2 at Doncaster.

However, seeing five more goals fly past them must leave Nigel Clough's men somewhat shell-shocked and fearful of what might City do again.

Young Cloughie does have a good home record against Premier League opposition having won two and drawn two of his last five although the 5-0 loss to Liverpool a couple of seasons ago could be a better barometer as he takes his mid-table League One side into battle again.

City cruising again

Man City will have reached their second straight final and fourth in the last six years when the final whistle goes on Wednesday. Yes, I'm assuming they'll protect their 9-0 lead.

The first leg was the fourth part of a six-match winning run which has seen them rack up 27 goals, with 16 of them coming in the cup games against Burton and Rotherham so they've been demolishing weaker opponents.

Is it a good thing? There's an argument that it's simply fuelling confidence. There's a slightly more nuanced theory that it's so easy they may fall into sloppy habits and Pep certainly had to have a word after they looked lacklustre in the first 45 against Huddersfield before running out 3-0 winners.

This is surely a question of how many but Guardiola will be wary of any slackening off again despite the ridiculous first-leg score.

Handicaps a way in

Man City are 1.15 to get the win (they were 1.05 in the first meeting) while Burton are 21.00 to cause a shock and restore a big chunk of pride.

The Draw is 11.00 although Burton don't have many of those at home (just two in 16 matches in League One).

At the Etihad, we had to go to City (-3) before finding an odd-against price but it's a goal less this time.

Man City (-2) is 2.02 and that would have landed in the last two Premier League games against Wolves and Man City.

Burton fancied to score

Burton had just one shot on target in the first leg and it came after seven seconds.

However, despite City keeping clean sheets in their last four games, BTTS is clear odds-onat 1.83.

I'm not entirely show that's right and 2.08 for 'No' seems fairly playable.

Burton won't want to get hammered again so will surely show a certain amount of caution. True, they'll also want to give their fans a roar but perhaps the BTTS market should be more of a pick 'em.

Man City to win to nil at 2.14 is another option for those who think an away victory is a formality.

Jesus best bet

Alvaro Negredo and Edin Dzeko both netted six times in City's 2013/14 League Cup campaign and Gabriel Jesus has been the main source of goals this time.

The Brazilian has five in the competition so far and, of course, four of those came in the 9-0.

He had to watch from the bench against Huddersfield so it's fair to presume that Pep was saving him for this.

It's just 1/4 (Sportsbook) that he adds to his tally while 8/5 for two more and 5/1 for another hat-trick are predictably short.

Waiting for teams news is the best advice though and several of City's youngsters were photographed in training, suggesting Guardiola could use this as a training exercise and a chance for his up-and-comers to gain some useful experience.

That idea is muddied by the Under-23s being in action in an EFL Trophy quarter-final trophy clash with Sunderland 24 hours earlier.

If selected, the 10/11 for Leroy Sane to score would look tasty but I think I'll head to the Same Game Multi and back the 3.93 for Jesus to score first in a City win.

He got the opener against Wolves, has netted seven times in his last three games and also put City in front when they won 3-0 at Oxford earlier in the competition.

RECOMMENDED BETS

1pt Same Game Multi Gabriel Jesus to score first and Man City win at 3.93 (Sportsbook)