Can Ash Barty upset an in-from Czech to make her way to her first Grand Slam Semi Final, and be the first Australian woman to reach the Semi Finals at the Australian Open since 1984?
Day 9 Tips
|Best Bet||Tiafoe v Nadal over 30.5 total games @ $1.93|
|Circuit Bet||Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ $1.70|
|Circuit Bet||Bautista Agut v Tsitsipas over 41.5 total games @ $1.99|
|Value Bet||Kvitova v Barty over 2.5 sets @ $2.40|
Tiafoe v Nadal over 30.5 total games @ $1.93
Along with Tsitsipas, Tiafoe is one of the great stories to come out of the tournament. He’s claimed the scalps of Kevin Anderson and Grigor Dimitrov, and is playing exciting tennis. His next opponent started the tournament slowly, but has come good in a hurry. Nadal is yet to drop a set after dominant performances against Alex De Minaur and Tomas Berdych, and goes into this as a $1.04 favourite. Even though I expect Nadal to win, I expect Tiafoe to put up a contest. He’s completely different to all the players that Nadal has encountered so far, so may shock the Spanish Bull considering this is the first time they’ve played. Tiafoe has plenty of power on the forehand side, along with finesse where you’ll see plenty of drop shots make Nadal run. Even if it’s a three-set loss to the 21-year-old American, I think there will be a tie-breaker in there to clear 30.5.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ $1.70
Always plays ok in Australia, and this will be her second Quarter Final here – the first being two years ago where she lost to Venus Williams. Has fallen out of the seedings for the first time in a long time, but appears to have figured her game out a bit this Australian Open and is playing great tennis. She’s beaten two top-ten players in Kiki Bertens and Sloane Stephens, as well as wiping the dangerous Sasnovich off the court in 0 and 3. She now takes on Danielle Collins who has also had a tournament to remember, in particular her demolition of Angelique Kerber in the Round of 16. The American is hitting the ball very well, but now faces a new proposition in Pavlyuchenkova who can out-do her for power. I expect the Russian to reach her first Grand Slam Semi Final.
Bautista Agut v Tsitsipas over 41.5 total games @ $1.99
Would love to put all chips in on the Greek sensation Tsitsipas after his massive win over Federer, but this is a dangerous match against Bautista Agut. The Spaniard has his fair share of scalps so far in Cilic and Khachanov, and his style of getting as many balls back as possible may not suit Tsitsipas. The head to head market is tough to bet into with various factors in this match including the emotions Tsitsipas has endured over the last 48 hours, but one thing I’m sure on is that this will go to at least four sets. Every match Tsitsipas has played in this tournament has gone to exactly four sets, whilst Bautista Agut has played in 3 five setters of his 4 matches. Expect 1 or 2 tiebreakers as well, with half of Tsitsipas’ sets this tournament going to 7. The more tiebreakers the better for the Greek, he’s won 4/6 so far this tournament opposed to Bautista Agut going 0/4. Take the over 41.5 games, and lean in the favour of Tsitsipas to advance.
Kvitova v Barty over 2.5 sets @ $2.40
They’ve played twice over the last two years, and as recent as the Sydney International Final. On both occasions the match went to three sets, with Barty winning the first set before Kvitova running over the top to win the match. It’s going to be a tough ask for the Australian up against the in-form Czech playing in her third Quarter Final here. After winning the Sydney International against Barty, Kvitova has spent little time on court so far winning every set to 6 so far this tournament – this being said, she’s yet to face a seed and had a very friendly draw. Barty’s first test was against Sharapova in the fourth round, coming from a set down to win in a gutsy effort. I’m predicting another three-set showdown between these two – if you’re confident on Kvitova she’s $4.10 to win 2-1.