Crystal Palace v Brighton: M23 derby should be more exciting than you think

Crystal Palace aren't the greatest at Selhurst Park but goals should happen when Brighton visit, says Jasmine Baba.

Crystal Palace v Brighton
Monday, 20:00
Live on Sky Sports

Palace on a roll

After a run of five winless Premier League games against formidable opposition it seems that Crystal Palace are back on track, now they are unbeaten in their last three. That run was started by a surprising win away at Burnley, followed by victory at home to Bournemouth and a 0-0 against Watford, which, with their own injury crisis, is not the worst result.
There's a chance to keep that momentum going when Brighton come to town. The Eagles are currently in 10th position and only two points off Manchester United in the European spots, they're also three points ahead of their rivals here but it won't be easy as Roy Hodgson is without any of his first choice recognised full-backs.
Mamadou Sahko is still suspended, Patrick Van Anholt remains out and his back-up, Jeffrey Schlupp, has also been ruled out of this one after coming off against Watford. Joel Ward is another that remains out.
But that's not their only problem, Palace are still struggling for goals. Only Watford have scored less goals (9) than Hodgson's team (14) with Selhurst Park seeing just 13 goals in eight games. They also rank as fourth worst team on xG.

Seagulls have perked up

Brighton are another team who have bounced back after going on a run of bad results due to facing bigger teams. They lost three straight games against Manchester United, Leicester and Liverpool but have turned it around in their last two games, winning 2-1 against Arsenal and then a 2-2 draw against Wolves, where they were trailing 1-0 down, came back to lead 2-1 but then conceded another before half time.
Even though Brighton are only four points above the relegation zone, they are still exceeding expectations. Graham Potter has influenced a more expansive, exciting and attacking type of football for the south coast team.
Neal Maupay has been the main attacking force this season and has scored six Premier League goals this season, three times as many as any other Brighton player.
Striker Aaron Connolly is a doubt for this after picking up a groin injury against Arsenal and missing the Seagulls' last match. Dale Stephens is suspended after picking up his fifth booking of the season. Solly March and Jose Izquierdo remain sidelined.

Too tight to call

Crystal Palace are the slight favourites to win at 2.64, Brighton are only just further out at 2.98 with the draw at 3.40. They've only met four times in the Premier League, so there's no recent historic record of sorts; the visitors lead the way with two wins, Palace with one win and one draw.
There isn't much between these two teams either. Only three points separate them and have had similar runs of form as of late. The lack of recent, top-flight history makes it hard to pick out any kind of narrative of how this could go. Because of this the best place to put your money on the Win-Draw-Win market is by backing the draw. It is worth noting that the home side are yet to suffer defeat this season when they've been the pre-match favourite (W3-D1).

Goals should flow

With the Seagulls playing a new, revived format under Potter, it should suit how the hosts like to play and we should see a different match to what we usually see at Selhurst Park.
For that reason, the fact that the Eagles hardly have any defenders and the fact this fixture usually brings about goals, I'll be backing Over 2.5 goals at 2.22. According to Infogol, the overs have a 52% chance of happening, which means you're getting a bigger price for what should essentially be priced [2.05].

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