Serie A Betting: Lazio can end Cagliari streak

Dave Farrar predicts an eighth consecutive Nerazzurri away victory, overs at San Siro and the Sardinians beaten after 13 rounds...

Conte marches on

Fiorentina v Inter
Sunday, 19:45
Live on Premier 2 and Betfair Live Video
It's not the most alluring Serie A weekend, this one. One of my favourite fixtures, the Genoa derby, takes centre stage on Saturday night, but I can't see a bet, or possibly a goal, in that game, so I'm afraid that I'm forced to be predictable.
Inter are two points clear at the top, and while it's not a lead that I see them holding onto for the rest of the season, I think that they'll continue their good recent form in Florence, and are overpriced to do so.
Inter have won all 7 of their away games so far this season, a club record, and they've looked so imperious away from San Siro that I can't see why they're trading at odds against to beat a Fiorentina side who have lost four of their last five, and lost here against Lecce the last time they played a Serie A game at the Artemio Franchi.
There are flaws in Antonio Conte's Inter, and they've had a bit of good fortune this season, but they should be way too good for Vincenzo Montella's disjointed team, and they're the bet of the week at 2.12

Overs at San Siro

Milan v Sassuolo
Sunday, 14:00
Live on Betfair Live Video
Milan have now won two games in a row, and will hope to continue their mini (and long overdue) resurgence against a Sassuolo team that have proved frustratingly inconsistent for their fans.
Roberto De Zerbi's team have picked up a couple of notable results in recent weeks though, first drawing against Juventus and then coming close to beating high flying Cagliari. A common theme with De Zerbi has always been his attacking philosophical approach, and we've seen that writ large so far during this campaign.
With 4 of Sassuolo's last 6 games containing at least four goals, that's the angle for this fixture. Only twice this season has a Sassuolo game gone Under 2.5 Goals, and with Milan full of confidence again, scoring three goals last time for the first time in this campaign, I think that we'll see an open game at San Siro. Jack Bonaventura's return to form for Milan has been a real boost, as has the fact that Krzysztof Piatek seems to have emerged from his slump.
Sassuolo have plenty of weapons too, and the rumours are that De Zerbi is going to name an attacking line up at San Siro, more so than usual. Mimmo Berardi has a great record against Milan, and I fancy him to cause them problems in what should be a high scoring game, and a tricky one for the Rossoneri.

End of the Cagliari run

Cagliari v Lazio
Monday, 19:45
Live on FreeSports and Betfair Live Video
Lazio are the price at Cagliari that Inter should be at Fiorentina, trading at 1.91 to win, but that still makes them backable.
Cagliari have had an extraordinary season so far, and recognising the fact that they've been consistently undervalued has won us a few bets, but an in form Lazio team are a different prospect entirely.
Lazio's momentous win against Juventus last weekend made it seven straight wins in Serie A, and cemented them as title contenders, unlikely though that may seem. They have won their last three games away from the Olimpico, and will be full of confidence as they make the trip to Sardinia.
The key to Lazio is that their big players have been playing well, and I can't see how Cagliari can deal with Sergej Milinkovic-Savic, Joaquin Correa, Luis Alberto, and of course Ciro Immobile.
Cagliari have shown understandable signs of slipping in the last three weeks, they are unbeaten in 13, and this may be too much for them. Lazio deserve to be favourites, and they're backable here.

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