Infogol Expected Goals Euro Acca: Back both Gladbach and Strasbourg

Infogol analyst Jake Osgathorpe is back with the best bets across Europe after going three out of four last weekend, using expected goals (xG) data to select a nicely priced weekend fourfold...

Goals at La Ceramica

Villarreal vs Getafe
Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Villarreal picked up a fantastic three points last weekend, as they went to Sevilla and picked up a win, though they were fortunate to do so according to expected goals (xG: SEV 2.29 - 1.61 VIL).
The Yellow Submarine ended a six-match winless run with that victory, and they have been unfortunate this season, sitting 13th in La Liga but 7th in our xG table.
They rank as the second best attacking team in the league according to expected goals (2.08 xGF per game), but they do allow chances (1.55 xGA per game), making them a really entertaining team to watch.
Getafe have been excellent again this season, with their 2-0 win over Real Valladolid (xG: GET 1.95 - 0.54 RVA) last weekend meaning they have won seven of their last 10 La Liga games, losing just once in that time.
Their process has improved drastically as the season has moved on, but away from home, they are more vulnerable 1.25 xGA per game, with their dogged style meaning they do hang in games and create chances.
Infogol sees this as a very entertaining game between two good sides, and we calculate a 55% (1.82) chance of BTTS here, making the 2.02 (49%) on offer the obvious value play.

Gladbach to win again

Hertha Berlin vs Borussia Mönchengladbach
Saturday, 17:30 GMT
Jürgen Klinsmann looks to have got a tune out his Hertha Berlin side in recent weeks, as they come into this game on the back of successive 1-0 wins over Freiburg and Bayer Leverkusen.
They kept both games tight, with few chances at either end of the pitch, but defensively they are still far from convincing, allowing an average of 1.66 xGA per game - a worry as they face the third best offense here.
Borussia Mönchengladbach bounced back from a disappointing defeat to Wolfsburg last weekend with a comfortable win over Paderborn in midweek (xG: BMG 2.74 - 0.58 PAD).
Marco Rose's side have been sensational this season, and sit second in the table behind only RB Leipzig, with a very impressive process, especially in attack (2.26 xGF, 1.46 xGA per game).
Infogol thinks Gladbach will be too much for Hertha to handle here, giving them a 45% (2.22) chance of getting the win, making the 2.32 (43%) available a sensible bet.

Strasbourg to extend good run

Strasbourg vs St Etienne
Saturday, 19:45 GMT
Strasbourg have picked up after a slow start to the season, winning four of their last six matches, and come into this match having won five of their last six home matches.
They have been hugely disappointing on the road, but at home they have been excellent, ranking as the fifth best home team in Ligue 1, with a very strong process infront of their own fans (1.71 xGF, 1.09 xGA per game).
St Etienne, after a fast start to Claude Puel's reign, have struggled in recent weeks, winning just one of their last five Ligue 1 games, losing both away games.
They were pummelled by PSG last weekend (xG: STE 0.92 - 4.36 PSG), and beat up by Reims the week before, so they are low on confidence, and their process on their travels is abysmal (0.73 xGF, 1.49 xGA per game).
So, here we have a really strong home team taking on a really weak away team, so it is no surprise that Infogol calculates there is value in backing the hosts, giving them a 48% (2.08) chance of winning, so the 2.18 (46%) on the Exchange offers a small amount of value.

Torino to see goals again

Torino vs SPAL
Saturday, 19:45 GMT
Torino have started to climb the table after a mediocre start, winning three of their last five, and it seems as though they have taken the handbrake off in attack.
They have averaged 1.51 xGF in those five games, but, they have also allowed 1.53 xGA per game in that time, so their matches are now seeing plenty of chances at both ends.
SPAL prop up the table after 16 games, and are six points from safety after winning just two of their matches so far, but they have been unfortunate this season, as they sit 17th in our xG table.
They have scored just 10 times so far, but according to xG they should have netted twice that amount (20.1 xGF), so are creating the chances but just not taking them.
Defensively though, they are bad, allowing 1.83 xGA per game, and unless they tighten up it will be a long old season for SPAL.
I think we will see an entertaining game here, and Infogol calculates a 58% (1.72) chance of BTTS, so the 2.00 (50%) available on the Exchange represents a decent bit of value.

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