US Open Women's Day 3 Tips: Svitolina to be surprisingly tested by Masarova

WTA action at the US Open continues on Wednesday, with the second round getting started. Our tennis columnist, Dan Weston, returns to give his opinions on the day ahead...

Tournament favourites get the done without much drama

On a day where drama wasn't in abundance, favourites tended to get the job done with the likes of Karolina Pliskova, Ash Barty, Iga Swiatek and Petra Kvitova all proceeding to round two tomorrow without dropping a set. The majority of women's matches were decided by a 2-0 scoreline yesterday, which is a rather different dynamic to anticipated - there's usually a lot more round one shocks than has been the case in this tournament so far.

Every player remaining in the draw has now won a match, so we can be a little bit more certain on player condition, and we have action from the bottom half of the draw today with 16 matches on the card. Matches, as they have done all week, get underway at 1600 UK time.

Big Names:-

Olga Danilovic 12.00 vs Naomi Osaka 1.08: The two-time winner, Osaka, breezed into round two with a straight-set win over Marie Bouzkova on Monday, and that match was a decent statement from Osaka against a pretty solid opponent. She now faces the Serbian qualifier, Olga Danilovic, and is a heavy favourite than in round one. My numbers suggest Danilovic is a slight downgrade to Bouzkova, so the market looks like they've got this one about right.

Contender Krejcikova should ease past McHale

Barbora Krejcikova 1.12 vs Christina McHale 9.20: French Open champion Krejcikova is definitely a contender for this tournament, and the eighth seed had a similarly straightforward win to Barty, getting past qualifier Astra Sharma for the loss of just four games.

McHale isn't close to her best currently, and came into the tournament having lost six of her last seven - and her win was as a 1.05 favourite against a player I've never heard of, ranked outside the top 700. It would be a real surprise if Krejcikova was defeated today, and the market price - which I agree with - illustrates as much.

Potential Value:-

Elina Svitolina 1.11 vs Rebeka Masarova 9.20: This match-up could have gone into the big name category as well, with Svitolina being the fifth seed here, but I'm keen to discuss the merits of the qualifier, Masarova, as a value choice. The Swiss player has been virtually unbeatable this year at ITF level, barely losing a match, and picked up a nice underdog win in round one against Ana Bogdan, in a match which went the full distance - 39 games as three tiebreaks were required.

Masarova's opposition in those ITF matches was mediocre, though, but she's clearly on a massive upward curve. There can be no doubt about that - she's gained close to 500 ranking spots this year and having made at least round two here, her ranking rise will continue.

Svitolina is a massive step up to her previous opposition but I can't help thinking the market has overvalued Svitolina at a short price today, and Masarova with a 6.5 game head start is 10/11 with the Sportsbook, which looks a decent spot to me.

Vondrousova versus Kasatkina both with high ability ceilings

Marketa Vondrousova 1.83 vs Daria Kasatkina 2.10: Finally, there's an interesting clash between two players who much was thought of as their careers were developing. Both have flattered to deceive on occasions, and struggled with consistency, but have high ceilings.

It's Kasatkina with marginally better hard court numbers in the last 12 months, but she's the market underdog at 2.10. If you asked me who would be higher ranked in two years, I'd probably say Vondrousova, but there's not much current evidence to suggest that she should be a favourite here.

0 nhận xét Blogger 0 Facebook

Post a Comment