State Of Origin 2017 kicks off in Brisbane with the Maroons looking to continue their dominance over the Blues. Queensland and Cowboys maestro Johnathan Thurston was ruled out of the match on Thursday morning, while Blues coach Laurie Daley has handed Roosters halfback Mitchell Pearce an Origin lifeline and a chance to improve on his disastrous record in the Origin arena.
Selection NotesStorm fullback Billy Slater was a shock omission from the Maroons squad in favour of Daris Boyd, who has been sensational in the No.1 jersey for the Broncos. It could spell the end of Slater’s QLD career, with many experts amazed he was left out by Kevin Walters after playing some impressive football for the Storm this season. As mentioned, Thurston has been ruled out, handing Broncos five-eighth Anthony Milford his Origin debut. Roosters enforcer Dylan Napa will also wear the maroon jersey for the first time and will ensure there is fireworks at Suncorp Stadium on Wednesday night. Mitchell Pearce has been recalled to the NSW side in the No.7 jersey and will have plenty of pressure on him after his well-documented struggles at this level of the game. Nathan Peats will make his Origin debut after Panthers hooker Peter Wallace was ruled out with a groin injury earlier in the week, while Sea Eagles workhorse Jake Trbojevic will make his debut off the bench. Roosters backrower Boyd Cordner replaces Paul Gallen as NSW captain and faces a tough initiation at Suncorp Stadium.
HistoryQueensland have won 58 Origins with New South Wales claiming 48 and three matches drawn. The Maroons have won 19 series to 12. The Maroons have won 10 of the last 11 series and have won the last two series. The Blues have lost their last three visits to Suncorp Stadium and the Maroons have won the last two series openers. Queensland won last year’s match at Suncorp Stadium 26-16 with Dane Gagai scoring a hat-trick.
FormQueensland have dominated State of Origin for over a decade with 10 series wins from the last 11 years including the last two series. New South Wales won Game 3 of the series last year – a dead rubber – 18-14. The Blues have scored more than 18 points just once under Laurie Daley and are averaging a paltry 11.33 points per game. Queensland have topped 18 points in three of their last five. The Blues have lost the last three at Suncorp by an average of 26.67 points with five of the last seven games at the ground being double digit wins to the Maroons. In terms of club form, NSW have seven from Top 4 clubs and two from the bottom four while Queensland have 11 from Top 4 teams and two from bottom four teams.
Key Matchup
Cooper Cronk v Mitchell Pearce. Cronk is all class with a capital C! He’ll have added responsibility now that Thurston has been ruled out and will need to maintain composure with Milford making his Origin debut. He knows how to win the big games and his experience will be invaluable throughout the series. Meanwhile, Pearce returns to the Origin arena and it doesn’t get much tougher than an opener at Suncorp Stadium. Pearce has an awful Origin record with four wins from 15 matches and he has long struggled to make the step up from club to representative level. The Wolf doubts it will be any different this time around.
Stats That Matter
– Over the last six years Queensland have won 12 of 18 matches.
– The Maroons have won 6 of the last 8 series openers.
– Queensland have won 10 of the last 11 ‘live’ matches in Brisbane.
– Six series straight have gone 2-1 with the last sweep coming in 2010. That 2010 sweep was the only series sweep since the Blues achieved the feat in 2000.
– None of the last four series openers have topped 20 points while the last time a total surpassed 28 in a series opener was back in 2010.
– Blues halfback Mitchell Pearce has played 15 Origins for four wins with just two forced line dropouts and more missed tackles than runs.
– There have been just three field goals kicked in the last 24 matches.
– The Maroons have won 6 of the last 8 series openers.
– Queensland have won 10 of the last 11 ‘live’ matches in Brisbane.
– Six series straight have gone 2-1 with the last sweep coming in 2010. That 2010 sweep was the only series sweep since the Blues achieved the feat in 2000.
– None of the last four series openers have topped 20 points while the last time a total surpassed 28 in a series opener was back in 2010.
– Blues halfback Mitchell Pearce has played 15 Origins for four wins with just two forced line dropouts and more missed tackles than runs.
– There have been just three field goals kicked in the last 24 matches.
Final Thoughts
It is hard to overlook some of selection decisions made by NSW in this one, a game they could have won with some reasonable decision-making. Pearce has been tried and tested at the Origin level, while Josh Dugan and Jarryd Hayne are playing out of position and are hardly the form centres of the NRL. There’s no questioning that Johnathan Thurston is irreplacable, but The Wolf argues that the Maroons’ spine is still better than what NSW have named. The top bet in the match though is under 33.5 points. None of the last four series openers have topped 20 points while the last time a total surpassed 28 in a series opener was back in 2010.
It is hard to overlook some of selection decisions made by NSW in this one, a game they could have won with some reasonable decision-making. Pearce has been tried and tested at the Origin level, while Josh Dugan and Jarryd Hayne are playing out of position and are hardly the form centres of the NRL. There’s no questioning that Johnathan Thurston is irreplacable, but The Wolf argues that the Maroons’ spine is still better than what NSW have named. The top bet in the match though is under 33.5 points. None of the last four series openers have topped 20 points while the last time a total surpassed 28 in a series opener was back in 2010.
How It’s Shaping Up
Queensland by 4
Queensland by 4
Best Bet
Under 33.5 points ($1.90)
Under 33.5 points ($1.90)
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