Sydney Roosters v Brisbane Broncos
Saturday, June 3, 5:30pm (AEST), Allianz Stadium, Sydney
It’s hard to get a gauge on this match with so many players from both sides involved in State of Origin 1. The Roosters have five Origin representatives, while the Broncos have six of their stars representing Queensland. Late team news will be crucial in this one.
History
The Broncos have won 14 of 21 against the Roosters since 2003, including 4 of the last 6. Brisbane won 32-8 when the teams met in Round 6. The last four and 6 of the last 8 have topped 38 points.
The Broncos have won 14 of 21 against the Roosters since 2003, including 4 of the last 6. Brisbane won 32-8 when the teams met in Round 6. The last four and 6 of the last 8 have topped 38 points.
Form
The Sydney Roosters are entrenched in the Top 4 with an 8-4 record. They had won two on end – including a 48-10 demolition of Parramatta – before a respectable 24-16 defeat to the Raiders in Canberra without five Origin stars. The Roosters have been held to 16 or fewer in 5 of their last 7 matches. Brisbane are also in the Top 4 with an 8-4 record and also enter off an Origin-related defeat to New Zealand, going down 28-10 at Mt Smart. The Broncos had won six straight prior to that loss, posting at least 24 in all of them. Brisbane have conceded 22-plus in 3 of their last 5 after not conceding 22 at all in the first six weeks.
The Sydney Roosters are entrenched in the Top 4 with an 8-4 record. They had won two on end – including a 48-10 demolition of Parramatta – before a respectable 24-16 defeat to the Raiders in Canberra without five Origin stars. The Roosters have been held to 16 or fewer in 5 of their last 7 matches. Brisbane are also in the Top 4 with an 8-4 record and also enter off an Origin-related defeat to New Zealand, going down 28-10 at Mt Smart. The Broncos had won six straight prior to that loss, posting at least 24 in all of them. Brisbane have conceded 22-plus in 3 of their last 5 after not conceding 22 at all in the first six weeks.
Key Matchup
Jake Friend v Andrew McCullough. If Friend happened to be born in NSW he would be wearing the NSW No.9 jersey in Origin 1, unfortunately for Friend he was born in Queensland and is stuck behind the greatest hooker of all time in Cameron Smith. Friend is an invaluable asset to the Roosters and his leadership while the Origin stars are missing is crucial to the Roosters’ success. McCullough makes his return to the Broncos side after suffering a nasty concussion against the Tigers. Like Friend, his experience and leadership during a disruptive Origin week is pivotal to the Broncos chances of causing an upset here.
Jake Friend v Andrew McCullough. If Friend happened to be born in NSW he would be wearing the NSW No.9 jersey in Origin 1, unfortunately for Friend he was born in Queensland and is stuck behind the greatest hooker of all time in Cameron Smith. Friend is an invaluable asset to the Roosters and his leadership while the Origin stars are missing is crucial to the Roosters’ success. McCullough makes his return to the Broncos side after suffering a nasty concussion against the Tigers. Like Friend, his experience and leadership during a disruptive Origin week is pivotal to the Broncos chances of causing an upset here.
Stats That Matter
- The Roosters are 6-6 ATS with a 7-5 under record while Brisbane are 6-6 ATS with an 8-4 over record.
- Brisbane have won 14 of 21 against the Roosters since 2003, including 4 of the last 6.
- The Roosters though have won the last three and 4 of the last 5 at Allianz.
- Brisbane won 32-8 when the teams met in Round 6.
- The last four and 6 of the last 8 have topped 38 points.
- The Roosters have covered just 1 of 4 at Allianz this year but cover 57% at the ground since 2013.
- Small interstate outsiders are 52-23 ATS since 2013 while in the Origin period they are 11-4 ATS.
Final Thoughts
The Wolf is treating this match with plenty of caution with so many unknowns around which Origin players will back-up on Saturday night. The Broncos with +3.5 looks the safest play and should be well prepared with Ben Hunt and Andrew McCullough directing the side around the park. Mitchell Pearce has been one of the best for the Roosters this season and his absence from training is sure to hurt the Roosters preparation and the flow of their attack for this clash. The Wolf is expecting some tired Origin players to back-up and there could be some leaks in defense for both sides as a result. The overs is also a recommended play here.
The Wolf is treating this match with plenty of caution with so many unknowns around which Origin players will back-up on Saturday night. The Broncos with +3.5 looks the safest play and should be well prepared with Ben Hunt and Andrew McCullough directing the side around the park. Mitchell Pearce has been one of the best for the Roosters this season and his absence from training is sure to hurt the Roosters preparation and the flow of their attack for this clash. The Wolf is expecting some tired Origin players to back-up and there could be some leaks in defense for both sides as a result. The overs is also a recommended play here.
How It’s Shaping Up
Brisbane by 2
Brisbane by 2
Best Bet
Brisbane +3.5 ($1.91)
Brisbane +3.5 ($1.91)
Other Recommended Bets
Over 37.5 ($1.88)
Over 37.5 ($1.88)
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