AFL Preview: Lions v Giants

Brisbane v GWS
Saturday 4:35pm at Gabba

Bottom-placed Brisbane host second-place Greater Western Sydney in what shapes as a sizable mismatch at the Gabba.

Form
Brisbane remain last on the ladder with their 2-10 record and the worst defence in the AFL. Their attack ranks 15th. The Lions have been in reasonable form over the last fortnight with a big home win against Fremantle before a solid effort against Port Adelaide despite a final margin of 40 points. Three of Brisbane’s last four games at the Gabba were losses of 50-plus.

Greater Western Sydney are second on the ladder with a 9-3 record with rankings of five in attack and six in defence. The Giants went into the bye off a shock one-point loss to Carlton, a defeat that ended a four-game win streak that included three teams inside the Top 8. The Giants have been held under 100 points in five of their last seven outings.

Stats That Matter

– The Giants have won the last three meetings with the Lions all by margins of 30-plus.
– The Lions have covered just 2 of their last 11 at the Gabba.
– The Lions have failed to cover six straight as an underdog of more than five goals at the Gabba.
– The over has hit in 14 of the last 18 games at the Gabba.
– The over is 28-14 after Brisbane conceded 120 or more since 2012.
– GWS are 11-15 ATS as an interstate favourite since 2012.
– The Giants are 4-1 over interstate off a loss.
– GWS are 25-18 ATS interstate off a loss.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Brisbane 7-5, Greater Western Sydney 5-7
2017 Over-Under: Brisbane 7-5, Greater Western Sydney 7-5

What To Expect
Despite some recent signs of improvement from the Lions, it is hard to see them competing in this one against the high-flying Giants. After some ordinary attacking performances of late, GWS would have gone into the bye knowing it is an area they need to work on. Brisbane’s defence is typically porous at home and the over is nearly always a bet there. Punters can bet the over and minus with confidence.

How It’s Shaping Up
Greater Western Sydney by 55

Recommended Bet
Over 202.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets
Lachie Whitfield has been in great form over his last two matches since returning from suspension, posting scores of 116 and 125. Should be in the money again.

Recommended Bet
Lachie Whitfield 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.97)