AFL Preview: Swans v Bombers

Sydney v Essendon
Friday 7:50pm at SCG

Sydney are hoping their surge back into contention continues on Friday night when they meet a desperate Bombers team at the SCG.

Form
Sydney have moved up to 12th on the ladder with a 5-7 record after their dramatic come-from-behind victory against Richmond. Sydney have now won five of their last six after astonishingly dropping six straight to open the year. The Swans have kept opponents to 81 or under in each of those six wins.

Essendon are clinging to a Top 8 position, sitting in eighth with a 6-6 record. The Bombers have won just four of their last 10 but before the bye they had belted Port Adelaide by 70 points in one of their best wins of the season. The Bombers have posted 100-plus in four of their last five. Essendon have conceded 116-plus in their last three interstate gamws.

Stats That Matter

– Sydney have won six straight against Essendon with the Bombers held to less than 82 in all those matches.
– The Swans have covered 4 of the last 6 matches.
– Sydney have covered 6 of their last 9 at the SCG when favoured by 18 or less.
– The under has hit in 7 of the last 8 games when the Swans have been favoured by less than three goals at the SCG.
– The Bombers have covered just 3 of their last 13 interstate games.
– The over has hit in 9 of the last 11 Essendon interstate games with the Bombers conceding 112-plus in 9 of the last 10.
– Since 2012 the Bombers are 5-1 over when an underdog of 18 or less.
– The under is 40-25 when an interstate underdog of 18 or less comes off scoring 110-plus.
– The Bombers and Swans are both 63% under teams in night games since 2012.
– Sydney are 7-14 ATS in night games at the SCG.

Betting Data
2017 Line: Sydney 5-7, Essendon 7-5
2017 Over-Under: Sydney 6-6, Essendon 7-5

What To Expect
Sydney are the hot team in the AFL at present and on home turf should be winning but against the two-faced Essendon team, nothing is for sure. On their day the Bombers could beat any team in the premiership. When they are off they can get embarrassed by any side. The best play is the under. Night games are typically under games this time of year and the Swans are a big under team at the SCG.

How It’s Shaping Up
Sydney by 15

Recommended Bet
Under 180.5 points ($1.88)

Player Markets
Josh Kennedy has averaged 110.6 points an outing over the last five games and has not shot lower than 102.

Recommended Bet

Josh Kennedy 110+ Fantasy Points ($1.90)