Saturday 24th June, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Mix
Italy meet Germany in Group C of the U21 European Championship on Saturday night knowing there is no room for error. Luigi Di Biagio's boys face a win-or-bust situation in Tychy if the Azzurrini are to reach the semi-finals.
Only the top team in each pool are guaranteed a place in the final-four and Germany are in pole position to qualify having secured two wins from two thus far. Stefan Kuntz's men arrive at the encounter requiring only a draw to progress.
Italy 3.20 made a slow start to the tournament, bossed possession against Denmark but toiling in the final third. The five-time winners eventually made the breakthrough after a rather uninspiring first-half to secure a 2-0 triumph before suffering an unexpected 3-1 reverse to the Czech Republic.
The Azzurrini made four changes to the team and began the encounter strongly; Federico Bernardeschi creating a goalscoring opportunity within 15 seconds but again failed to make their dominance of the ball and territory pay.
Di Biagio's troops fell behind in the 24th minute and only levelled the match up with 15 minutes to play. Two late goals from the Czechs left the Italians reeling and facing a do-or-die situation on Saturday.
Italy leaked just three goals in 10 games en-route to Poland, not shipping more than a solitary strike in a match. But the well-fancied side will need to step-up in class and an improvement from star players Domenico Berardi and Bernardeschi in attack if they're to realise dreams of knockout football.
Germany 2.38 know a point will do in their quest to finish top of the tree but with none of Die Mannschaft's past 18 fixtures ending all-square 3.60, we should expect Stefan Kuntz's side to play to win.
The Group C leaders brushed aside Czech Republic (2-0) comfortably in their opener before dispatching Denmark (3-0) to make it 12 consecutive competitive victories and 16 triumphs in their past 18 outings at this level.
Kuntz's opted for an unchanged XI against the Danes and whilst the outright second favourites were embroiled in a hard-fought first-half, their clinical qualities shone through after the interval with striker Davie Selke, defender Oliver Kempf and substitute Nadiem Amiri all scoring.
Selke was outstanding last time out and the pace and perceptive from Gnabry, the playmaking quality of Max Meyer and runs from deep by Mahmoud Dahoud ensure the Germans are packed with offensive weapons to upset the best of the continent's young defences.
Goalkeeper Julian Pollersbeck has been called into action but Germany notched 35 goals in qualifying - more than any other side - and are built to out-gun opposition outfits. They've already fired in 46 shots (17 on-target) and I don't expect Kuntz's charges to walk away from their gung-ho style here despite the permutations of the pool.
Italy have no option but to get forward; the outsiders for this encounter have struggled to capitalise on their talent up top but I do believe they're capable of causing Germany a few problems here. However, the Germans boast too much attacking class of their own to dismiss.
Therefore, our best angle of attack is to back a goal-friendly game with Both Teams To Score the likeliest scenario, available to support at a fair 1.70.
Recommended Bet
Back Both Teams To Score 1.70
Czech Republic U21 v Denmark U21
Saturday 24th June, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports 2
Czech Republic were surprise 6.20 winners against Italy on Wednesday to keep their faint hopes of a semi-final place alive. The Little Lions must beat Denmark here and hope Italy see off Germany to have a chance of topping the section.
Vitezslav Lavicka's men were well beaten in their opener by the Germans, landing only two efforts on-target. But the head coach made three changes to his team for Wednesday's 3-1 triumph over Italy with Man of the Match Michael Travnik, substitute Marek Havlik and a stunner from Michael Luftner securing the points.
Travnik took advantage of Daniele Rugani's slip to give the Czechs a lead midway through the first-half and as the game progressed, the Little Lions' influence became more apparent, with plenty of clever build-up play and the physicality of Lavicka's charges frustrating their more illustrious opposition.
Few fancied the Czechs when Italy equalised in the 75th minute but a superb response ensured maximum points with Travnik particularly catching the eye with a pivotal performance linking the midfield and attack. His defensive diligence stood out as Italy were consistently thwarted when coming forward.
Denmark's [4.80 ]fate has already been sealed following back-to-back defeats. Niels Frederiksen's side frustrated Italy for large swathes of their opening encounter but were unable to test the Azzurrini in a 2-0 loss. The Danes managed just one on-target effort in a largely toothless display.
Frederiksen made three changes to his team for their clash against Germany. Denmark produced another resolute first-half performance but were unable to make their mark before succumbing to a fair 3-0 reverse.
Winger Andrew Hjulsager forced Julian Pollersbeck into a smart save but leading striker Marcus Ingvartsen was quiet once more in the Danes' 4-4-2 system. The rock-bottom side have now returned W1-D1-L4 in their past six outings, including heavy friendly losses to England, Spain and Germany.
The 2015 semi-finalists won't find the Czechs quite as ruthless as the aforementioned trio and Denmark should be presented with a few more opportunities to break their duck in front of goal. But ultimately, they're likely to come up short.
The Czech Republic 1.78 have kept just four competitive clean sheets in 15 outings since 2015 with no finalist conceding more goals in qualifying (10) than the Little Lions.
Indeed, the pre-match favourites leaked home and away to both Moldova and Latvia, suggesting goals could be on the agenda.
Over 2.5 Goals has proven a profitable formula in 10 of the Czechs past 12 matches whilst Both Teams To Score has banked in seven of their most recent nine. I'll count on the Little Lions securing the success they require alongside a game involving goals at both ends with a generous 21/10 on offer.
Recommended Bet
Back Czech Republic to win and Both Teams To Score 21/10
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