NRL Preview: Storm v Raiders

NRL PreviewMelbourne Storm v Canberra Raiders
Saturday, September 2, 7:30pm (AEST) at AAMI Park, Melbourne

The Wolf underestimated the Storm last week and they made him pay by putting the Rabbitohs to the sword along with his bet of the Rabbitohs with the 14 point start. The tricky part of this contest is how both sides will approach the clash. The Storm have well and truly secured the minor premiership and a home final. Will Craig Bellamy rest some of his stars or want to take winning form into the finals? The Raiders can finish no better than 9th, but will they have the motivation to finish their season by knocking off the competition favourites or will their eyes be focused on Mad Monday?

HistoryThe Storm have won four of the last five against the Raiders but the last three have all been decided by a single score, including a 20-14 victory to the Storm in Canberra back in Round 20. Raiders halfback Aidan Sezer scored a double in the six-point loss.

FormMelbourne have been the runaway minor premiers, notching a 19-4 record and a ridiculous +271 differential, leading the NRL in both attack and defence. The Storm have won six straight, scoring 40 or more in three of those wins and conceding just 45 points across their last five games. They defeated Souths 64-6 last week. Canberra are out of the running with an 11-12 record. They have won four of their last five but left their run too late. Canberra have scored at least 30 in four of their last five but have conceded 26-plus in their last two.

Stats That Matter– Melbourne are 13-10 ATS with a 12-11 over record while Canberra are 12-11 ATS with a 13-10 over number.

– The Storm have won four of the last five against the Raiders but the last three have all been decided by a single score.

– None of the last four have topped 36 points.

– The Storm are 4-7 ATS at AAMI in their last 11 this year while the Storm have covered 8 of their last 12 as a double digit home favourite.

–  The Storm are just 2-7 ATS at home after winning by 18 or more.

– Canberra are 30-21 ATS at night and have covered four straight.

– Canberra are 10-4 ATS as an underdog of 6.5 or more at night.

– The Raiders are 11-6 ATS on the road getting 6.5 points while they are 12-4 ATS on the road after scoring 30 or more.

Final ThoughtsThere’s no doubt that Storm coach Craig Bellamy wants to enter the finals on the back of the win, but he might also choose to rest his stars at some point in the match (The Wolf did think the same thing last week). The Raiders will throw everything at the Storm and prove that if they didn’t leave their run too late, they would be playing in the finals. The Storm are too good to back against in H2H betting, but The Wolf is very keen on the Raiders with the big start here and is making them a five-chip special.

How It’s Shaping UpMelbourne by 4

Best Bet
Canberra +9.5 ($1.91)

Other Recommended Bets
BuildABet – Either B.Slater, S.Vunivalu, J.Addo-Carr to score first try ($2.70)