South Sydney Rabbitohs v North Queensland Cowboys Sunday, July 1, 4:10pm Barlow Park, Cairns
Recent FormSouth Sydney are second on the ladder with an 11-4 record. The Bunnies are riding a seven-game win streak that dates back to the first week of May. Souths have the best attack in the NRL while they rank fifth in defence. Souths have scored 18 or more in their last 10. North Queensland sit fourth last with a 4-11 record. They have won just one of their last six. They have scored more than 20 points just three times this season.
Stats That Matter– South Sydney are 11-4 ATS with an 8-7 under record. – North Queensland are 6-9 ATS with a 10-5 under record, going under in their last six. – North Queensland have won eight of their last 10 against South Sydney and were desperately unlucky not to win when the teams met in Round 11 when Souths won on a controversial after-the-siren penalty. – The last four meetings have tallied 39 points or fewer. – This is the third meeting in Cairns with the Cowboys winning both by 13-plus. – Souths have covered just 1 of 5 in Cairns. – Souths have covered five straight and 9 of their last 12 day games while North Queensland are 4-4 ATS with a 7-1 under record in day matches. – Souths have covered 8 of their last 10 when favoured by 8 or more points. – Teams who have won seven straight are 32-46 ATS since 2008 with favourites of more than a converted try 13-30 ATS. – Souths have covered just 2 of 6 after scoring 40 with the under hitting at 59% when a team scores 40-plus. – The Cowboys have covered just 2 of 5 getting a start of 8 or more. – North Queensland have covered 4 of their last 5 as an underdog.
Final ThoughtsThe Wolf is expecting the Rabbitohs to be too good for the Cowboys, but is expecting a flat performance, especially with Sam and Tom Burgess on the back-up after playing at altitude in Denver. There’s a 70% chance of rain in Cairns on Sunday, while the last four meetings between the sides have tallied 39 points or fewer. Playing the unders and the Cowboys with the generous 9.5 start at a venue which will be like a home game.
How It Shapes UpSouth Sydney by 6
Recommended Bets Best: Under 42.5 ($1.91) Value: North Queensland +9.5 & Under 42.5 ($3.30) First Tryscorer: Te Maire Martin ($26)