Denmark v France: Deschamps' side can complete maximum job to claim top spot

Denmark v France
Tuesday, 15:00
Live on ITV

A point will be enough

Denmark's 1-1 draw with Australia on Thursday left them in second place in Group C with four points, two behind France.

A win for the Danes here would give them top spot above France, while a point would ensure qualification in second place. They will progress regardless of the result here if
Australia fail to beat Peru in the other Group C match.

Yussuf Poulsen is suspended, with Martin Braithwaite likely to take his place in the front three. Lasse Schone is expected to continue in midfield in place of the injured William Kvist.

Group destiny in French hands

With maximum points from their first two matches, France already have a place in the knockout stage and they will progress as Group C winners if they avoid defeat here.

Didier Deschamps appears to have moved closer to a settled line-up for the knockout stage, with Olivier Giroud appearing to have played himself into the front line with his effective performance in Thursday's 1-0 win over Peru, while Blaise Matuidi came back into midfield in place of Corentin Tolisso.

The most obvious weak points now are the young full-backs Benjamin Pavard and Lucas Hernandez, with Djibril Sidibé and Benjamin Mendy unfit to take their places.

It is possible that Deschamps could make some changes with only a point needed to win the group.

Draw unusually short

The draw is short at 2.72 given that a point apiece would put both teams through. Denmark need three points to top the group, but are they prepared to risk everything to get them?

There have been some notorious cases of 'engineered' results at this stage of major tournaments but punters who make too many assumptions can be on shaky ground. The Danish mindset might change, for instance, if they hear that Australia are trailing by a couple of goals against Peru.

France have not been that convincing overall but they keep getting results. Deschamps' side must be doing something right because they have won 16 of the 20 matches in which they have scored since losing the Euro 2016 final to Portugal and they have now found the net in 11 consecutive matches.

Denmark are best at counter-attacking and this scenario might suit them. They could choose to sit back and protect the point, while looking to hit France on the break. But France themselves start with something to protect, their top spot in the group, and they might not open out too much.

It's easy to see how, conspiracy theories aside, this match could end up in a stalemate.

But actually the opportunity to back France at decent odds against fairly limited opponents is too good to pass up. Denmark looked poor in the second half against Australia and a similar spell against France is more likely to be punished.

With Denmark not offering a great deal in attack so far, France look worth backing at2.36.

Using the new Same Game Multi feature in the Sportsbook, you could try France to win and Giroud to score anytime at odds of 4.5.

Low goals expected

Under 2.5 goals is short at 1.47, again because of the possibility of stalemate. That makes over 2.5 goals much too big, although neither team has looked likely so far to serve up a goalfest.

Those who believe in the draw theory would probably be better backing correct scores of 0-0 at 6.40 and/or 1-1 at 5.90.

Key Opta Stats for Denmark v France

Denmark and France have met twice in the World Cup, both in the final of game of the group stages – France won 2-1 in 1998 and Denmark won 2-0 in 2002. The odds of either side claiming a victory in the Double Chance market are 1.57.

Denmark and France are meeting at a sixth major tournament after Euro 1984, Euro 1992, World Cup 1998, Euro 2000 and World Cup 2002. France went on to win three of those five previous tournaments. The French are 10.00 to win the World Cup.

France have won six of their last seven games against Denmark (L1), with the only defeat in that run coming in the 2002 World Cup. They are 2.36 to claim another victory.

Olivier Giroud has scored each of France’s last three goals against the Danes, most recently a brace in a 2-1 victory in October 2015. Giroud is 3.30 to score.

Denmark have lost four of their last five World Cup games against fellow European nations, with the exception in that run being a 2-0 win against France in 2002. The Danes are 4.70to beat France again.

If Denmark are awarded a penalty in this match, it will be the first time since Group C in 1998 that all four teams have had a penalty in a single World Cup group – that group also contained France and Denmark. The odds of a penalty being taken in the match are 3.40.

France have only won all three of their group stage games at a World Cup finals once before, back in 1998 when they went on to win the tournament. Their third win in that edition also came against Denmark. They are 1.49 in the Draw No Bet market.

Since his debut for the national side in March 2017, only Olivier Giroud (11) has been involved in more goals for France than teenager Kylian Mbappé (10; 5 goals, 5 assists). Mbappe is 3.50 to find the net.

Denmark’s Christian Eriksen has scored 17 goals in his last 20 appearances for the national side. He's 4.50 to score again.

France’s Kylian Mbappé could become the first teenager to score in more than one World Cup match since England’s Michael Owen did so in 1998. You can back him at 6.00 to score the first goal.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back France at 2.36