Senegal v Colombia: South Americans should do the job without much fuss

Senegal v Colombia 
Thursday,16:00
Live on BBC 

'Not very good' Senegal need improvement

Senegal were my idea of the value play to win Group H at around the 5/1 mark and their campaign couldn't have started any better with a 2-1 defeat of Poland. The Poles dominated possession but offered nothing of a threat and the Lions of Taranga were the worthy winners but I did wonder how good Senegal were and whether a bad Poland side had made the Africans look better than they were. The subsequent results confirmed that it had indeed been the case. Poland were thumped by Colombia and Senegal failed to impress against the Japanese.

Following their 2-2 draw with Japan, Senegal's manager, Aliou Cisse had this to say about the match.

"Of course we have regrets. We must acknowledge that we didn't see a great Senegalese performance in comparison to the match against Poland. We were not very good frankly, and Japan were the better team, I have to admit that. But despite that fact, we led twice and what's annoying for me is the two goals we conceded."

For the second game in-a-row the Senegalese were happy to allow their opposition the bulk of the possession and that might not be a great strategy against a side as strong as Colombia. Senegal need only a point to progress but I fear that's beyond them.

Lots more to come from Colombia

It was impossible to know what to make of Colombia after their opening match with Japan, when they were 1-0 down and down to ten men inside the opening three minutes. With hindsight, their 2-1 defeat to the Samurai Blue doesn't look as bad as it did initially, and it can't be underestimated how hard it is to play almost an entire match with ten men at this level and in hot conditions. They worked their socks off and deservedly drew level before the break but their endeavours eventually took their toll in the second half and it was no surprise when Japan took the lead.

With 11 men for 90 minutes, and against a team seemingly inferior to Japan, Colombia ran out impressive 3-0 winners against Poland, despite the pressure they were under and I get the impression there's lots still to come from Los Cafeteros.

Radamel Falcao will play with confidence now he has his first World Cup goal under his belt and having a fit and firing James Rodriguez in the side is a huge plus. With a niggling calf injury picked up in training, James came on as a sub against Japan but he started against the Poles and he was influential from start to finish. He created the opening goal for Jerry Mina, just before half time against Poland, and you won't see a better assist all competition than the one that bypassed three defenders to set up Juan Cuadrado for their third goal.

A draw will be enough to see Colombia through to the knockout phase if Poland beat Japan, but they will want to keep momentum going so I expect them go for the three points.

South Americans' extra class should tell

After four games, Group H is taking shape and to summarise, Poland have been dire, Senegal benefited from playing the sorry Poles first but they're probably an ordinary side at best, Japan are decent, well-organised and a better team than expected but they may have caught an almighty break playing a Colombia team with only ten men and without James from the start. And If there's a team in the group that can go deep into the competition it's Los Cafeteros. They're starting to look like a quality side and I fully expect them to get the job done here against Senegal.

I've got a couple of nice bets on Senegal to win the group and to qualify but I'm not letting previous wagers cloud my judgement. On the evidence of the last two matches, when Senegal drew with Japan and Colombia comfortably beat the Poles, Colombia look the play here at just a shade of odds-on. As was the case on Sunday, they know a win is required if they want to remain in the competition and I fancy they'll get the three points without too much fuss. The 10/11 about a Colombian win with the Sportsbook is perfectly fair.

Attacking teams should deliver goals

As one might expect, the competition started cagily and a bet on Under 2.5 Goals was the correct play in nine of the first 12 games but the goals are starting to flow now, and not just in this group.

All four Group H games to date have seen a minimum of three goals and I see no reason to think that pattern can't continue. The industry-best price of 11/10 about Over 2.5 Goals looks a very fair price.

I fancy Colombia strongly and I suspect they'll dominate possession throughout, but the Senegalese are a team that have delivered four goals in their first two games and they're an obvious threat on the break so I'd much rather play Yes in the Both Teams to Score market at 10/11 than No at the same price.

Same Game Multi

I was a Sadio Mane goal away from a decent pick up in the opening Group H game using the Same Game Multi tab feature and it's a fun way to aim for much bigger profits for small stakes. It can be found at the top of the Sportsbook market. Just pick two or more selections to build a wager. You can reach for the stars and pick all sorts of combinations but a Colombia win and Over 2.5 Goals pays very nearly 2/1 and that'll do me here.

Key Opta Stats for Senegal v Colombia

Senegal and Colombia have faced each other just once before, in a friendly in May 2014, with Colombia taking a 2-0 lead into half-time, only to concede two goals in the second half. Both teams to score is 1.93.

Senegal have faced South American opponents just once before in the World Cup, drawing 3-3 in the final group stage game of 2002 against Uruguay. Another draw is 3.70.

Colombia’s first World Cup match against African opposition came in 1990, losing 2-1 in extra-time to Cameroon – since then, they’ve won both such meetings, in 1998 against Tunisia and 2014 against Ivory Coast. The Colombians are 1.92 to win again.

James Rodriguez has been involved in 10 goals in seven World Cup appearances for Colombia (6 goals, 4 assists). Rodriguez is 3.30 to score.

Colombia registered their joint-biggest World Cup win in their 3-0 victory over Poland, also winning by three-goal margins against Greece (3-0) and Japan (4-1) in 2014. They are 3.10to win half-time/full-time.

Moussa Wagué became the first African teenager to score a World Cup goal in Senegal’s 2-2 draw with Japan (19y 263d). He's 19.00 to add to his tally.

Sadio Mané found the net against Japan, the 15th different match he’d scored in for Senegal – they are yet to lose any of those (W9 D6). Mane is 3.60 to score.

Colombia have scored four goals from seven shots on target at the 2018 World Cup, scoring three goals from four shots on target in their 3-0 win over Poland. Over 2.5 goals is 2.10.

Since keeping a clean sheet against France in their first ever World Cup match in 2002, Senegal haven’t recorded a shutout in any of their last six, conceding three goals from just seven shots on target faced at this year’s tournament. Over 3.5 goals is 3.90.

RECOMMENDED BETS

Back Colombia @ 10/11 (3 points) 

Back Over 2.5 Goals @ 11/10 (1 point)