St George Illawarra Dragons v Parramatta Eels Thursday, June 28, 7:50pm WIN Stadium, Wollongong
Late team news will be all-important throughout Round 16 as representative players attempt to back up for their clubs this week. The Dragons could rest their international representatives in Leeson Ah Mau, James Graham and Gareth Widdop courtesy of the short turnaround for the Test match between England and New Zeland played in Denver. Origin representatives Jack De Belin, Tyson Frizell and Ben Hunt could also be rested, with De Belin the most unlikely as he battles a hip injury. For the Eels, Manu Ma’u suffered a cheekbone injury, while playing for Tonga which is expected to sideline him for multiple weeks. It’s a battle between 1st and 16th, but proceed with caution until we know the final make-up of the Red V.
Recent FormSt George Illawarra sit on top of the ladder with an 11-3 record. They are a perfect 8-0 at home. The Saints rank second in scoring and third in defence. The Dragons have won their last two and five of their last seven. Parramatta are last on the ladder with just three wins. They rank last in scoring while they are a marginally better 13th in defence. Parramatta have won just 1 of their last 7 and have conceded 30 or more in two of their last three. The Eels are 0-7 against Top 8 teams.
Stats That Matter– St George Illawarra are 8-6 ATS with a 10-4 under record and have gone under in five straight. – Parramatta are 4-11 ATS with a 9-6 under record and have covered just 1 of their last 6. – The Eels have won six straight against the Dragons dating back to 2013 with the last three of those wins all coming by 12 or more. – Five of the last seven matches have tallied 36 or more points. – The Saints have lost just one of the last five against the Eels in Wollongong – a 34-16 defeat in Round 2 last year. – The Dragons are 10-5 ATS with a 9-6 under record at Wollongong since 2015. – The Saints have covered their last three as a double digit favourite. – The under is 14-7 in Saints night games. – The Dragons are 7-12 ATS with a 13-6 under record off scoring 30 or more points while they are 16-11 ATS with a 15-12 under record off conceding 14 or fewer. – The Eels have covered 6 of their last 9 away from ANZ/Parramatta Stadium and are 6-2 ATS with a 5-3 over record when getting a start of 10 or more. – The Eels are 11-3 over away from ANZ/Parra Stadium getting a start of 8 or more. – The under has hit in 7 of the last 9 Eels games away from ANZ/Parra Stadium. – The Eels are 0-3 ATS with a 3-0 under record after conceding 40 or more. – The Eels have covered 4 of their last 5 off a loss of 13-plus.
Final ThoughtsUnders looks the safest play here with the uncertainty surrounding the make-up of the Dragons side. The Dragons have gone under in five straight matches, while the unders has hit in 7 of the last 9 Eels games away from ANZ/Parramatta Stadium.
How It Shapes UpSt George Illawarra by 4
Recommended Bets Best: Under 39.5 ($1.91) Value: Parramatta +9.5 & Under 39.5 ($3.40) First Tryscorer: Tim Lafai