AFL Preview Round 15: Suns v Magpies

Gold Coast v Collingwood
Sat 7:25pm at Metricon Stadium

The Suns will return to the scene of the crime on Saturday night, when they welcome the Pies to Metricon Stadium after their horror loss against the Saints last round. Stewy Dew’s men let a 31-point 3 quarter time lead slip, and you would hope they have spent a lot of time addressing their 2nd half woes at training this week against a side that is absolutely flying. Will it be six in a row for Collingwood, as they fly towards a Finals series again?

Form

Gold Coast (LLLLL) – You gotta wonder whether Stewy Dew is reconsidering his decision to become a Senior Coach. Their effort, whether guided by mind or by fitness, is just putrid in second halves- a TAC Cup side would out-score them at the moment! They go into complete self-preservation mode and it’s hard to know what the coaching team can do from the box when it goes so pear shaped. At least the return of Peter Wright has taken some of the pressure of the out-of-form Tom Lynch. 

Collingwood (WWWWW) – The start of the season was a bit up-and-down for the Pies, but after 5 wins on the trot, unbelievably, we are now talking Top 4 for Buckley’s men! Losing Adam Treloar, and his explosion away from stoppages, for the the next few months certainly hurts, but spirits are high down at the Holden Centre, and with the way this group is gelling at the moment, there are some good players in great VFL form ready to come in and contribute straight away.

Stats That Matter– Collingwood have won 5 of their 7 encounters
– The Suns have won just one 4th quarter this season (-220 points)
– Brodie Grundy is averaging 118 Fantasy Points per game this season
– Gold Coast have posted 50+ points just once in their past 5 matches
– Steele Sidebottom has had 30+ Disposals in 6 of his last 7 games
– The Suns are 2-11 on the Over/Under in 2018
– Scott Pendlebury averages 28 disposals and 118 Fantasy Points per game against the Suns

Betting Data

2018 Line: Gold Coast- 7-6; Collingwood- 8-5

2018 Over-Under: Gold Coast- 2-11; Collingwood- 6-7

What To Expect

It’s a big line, and justifiably so- but the Pies haven’t always been entirely impressive against the Suns and with Steven May returning perhaps Gold Coast can avoid a complete blowout. The 0-60 Points market for the Suns was good to Wolf followers last week, and with the margin markets providing too much uncertainty, Wolfie is turning to it again.

How It’s Shaping UpCollingwood by 36

Recommended Bets

Best Bet: Gold Coast 0-60 Points ($1.97)
Value Bet: Steele Sidebottom 120+ Fantasy Points ($3.20)
Player Prop: Scott Pendlebury 30+ Disposals ($2.05)
First Goalscorer: Tom Lynch